Hurricane · Cat 22026 Atlantic season
Isaias
As of Oct 9, 3:00 AM UTC · National Hurricane Center · advisory 10
- Max sustained wind
- 105mph
- Lowest pressure
- 969mb
- Position
- 25.4°N 88.4°W
- Movement
- NE 14mph
Forecast cone and coastal warnings
NHC GIS, advisory 10 · fetched Oct 9, 3:04 AM UTC
In effect
Hurricane Warning
In effect
Tropical Storm Warning
Reading the map
White area: the forecast cone, the probable path of a storm's center. It does not show the storm's size, and hazards can occur well outside it.
- Winds of 39 mph (34 kt) or more now
- Winds of 58 mph (50 kt) or more now
- Winds of 74 mph (64 kt) or more now
Letters: D depression, S storm, H hurricane, M major hurricane.
Forecast, point by point
105 (125) mph, gusts 125 mph,
NowCat 225.4°N88.4°W
115 (140) mph, gusts 140 mph,
Fri 7 AMCat 327.1°N87.6°W
100 (120) mph, gusts 120 mph,
Fri 7 PMCat 229.9°N87.1°W
50 (65) mph, gusts 65 mph,
Sat 7 AMTS32.2°N87.3°W
35 (45) mph, gusts 45 mph,
Sat 7 PMSubtropical Depression34.1°N87.5°W
25 (35) mph, gusts 35 mph,
Sun 7 AMSubtropical Depression36.1°N86.1°W
25 (35) mph, gusts 35 mph,
Sun 7 PMSubtropical Depression38.0°N83.0°W
Times CDT
National Weather Service alerts for Isaias
The local watches and warnings issued for this storm.
- extremeHurricane Warning8 zones
St. Andrews Bay Waterways, Coastal waters from Okaloosa-Walton County Line to Mexico Beach out 20 NM, Waters from Okaloosa-Walton County Line to Mexico Beach from 20 to 60 NM, Waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM, South Walton, Central Walton, North Walton, Coastal Bay
NWS Tallahassee FL
until Oct 9, 7:15 AM EDT - extremeStorm Surge Warning8 zones
South Walton, Coastal Bay, Coastal Gulf, Coastal Franklin, Coastal Wakulla, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Taylor, Coastal Dixie
NWS Tallahassee FL
until Oct 9, 6:15 AM CDT - extremeHurricane Warning8 zones
Mississippi Sound, Breton Sound, Chandeleur Sound, Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River out 20 nm, Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out 20 NM, Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm, Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM, Southern Jackson
NWS New Orleans LA
until Oct 9, 12:15 PM CDT - extremeStorm Surge Warning7 zones
Lower Plaquemines, Lower St. Bernard, Eastern Orleans, Southeast St. Tammany, Southern Hancock, Southern Harrison, Southern Jackson
NWS New Orleans LA
until Oct 9, 6:15 AM CDT - extremeHurricane Warning26 zones
Conecuh, Covington, Escambia, Baldwin Coastal, Mobile Coastal, Baldwin Central, Mobile Central, Santa Rosa Coastal +18 more
NWS Mobile AL
until Oct 9, 6:00 AM CDT - extremeStorm Surge Warning7 zones
Baldwin Coastal, Mobile Coastal, Baldwin Central, Mobile Central, Santa Rosa Coastal, Escambia Coastal, Okaloosa Coastal
NWS Mobile AL
until Oct 9, 6:00 AM CDT - severeTropical Storm Watch19 zones
Jefferson, St. Clair, Pickens, Tuscaloosa, Shelby, Talladega, Clay, Randolph +11 more
NWS Birmingham AL
until Oct 9, 6:30 AM CDT - severeTropical Storm Warning10 zones
Marengo, Dallas, Autauga, Elmore, Lowndes, Montgomery, Macon, Pike +2 more
NWS Birmingham AL
until Oct 9, 6:30 AM CDT - severeTropical Storm Watch16 zones
Chattahoochee, Heard, Schley, Taylor, Marion, Macon, Sumter, Webster +8 more
NWS Peachtree City GA
until Oct 9, 7:30 AM EDT - severeTropical Storm Watch10 zones
Lauderdale, Forrest, Jones, Neshoba, Newton, Winston, Jasper, Clarke +2 more
NWS Jackson MS
until Oct 9, 6:15 AM CDT - severeTropical Storm Warning31 zones
Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm, Coastal Waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola out 20 NM, Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 Nm, Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM, Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM, Inland Bay, Coastal Gulf, Inland Gulf +23 more
NWS Tallahassee FL
until Oct 9, 7:15 AM EDT - severeTropical Storm Watch13 zones
Inland Jefferson, Grady, Thomas, Baker, Mitchell, Colquitt, Calhoun, Dougherty +5 more
NWS Tallahassee FL
until Oct 9, 7:15 AM EDT - severeTropical Storm Warning16 zones
Lake Borgne, Terrebonne Bay, Barataria Bay, Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River LA out 20 nm, Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM, Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya River LA from 20 to 60 NM, Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM, Lower Plaquemines +8 more
NWS New Orleans LA
until Oct 9, 12:15 PM CDT - severe
Northern Jackson
NWS New Orleans LA
until Oct 9, 6:15 AM CDT - severeTropical Storm Warning8 zones
Washington, Butler, Monroe, Wilcox, Crenshaw, Greene, Clarke, George
NWS Mobile AL
until Oct 9, 6:00 AM CDT - severeTropical Storm Watch4 zones
Wayne, Choctaw, Perry, Stone
NWS Mobile AL
until Oct 9, 6:00 AM CDT - severe
Coastal Levy
NWS Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
until Oct 9, 7:00 AM EDT
Latest advisory, as issued
000
WTNT34 KNHC 090249
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026
1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026
...ISAIAS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A
DANGEROUS HURRICANE ON FRIDAY...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 88.4W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
Read the full advisory
000 WTNT34 KNHC 090249 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026 ...ISAIAS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE ON FRIDAY... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 88.4W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS * East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Suwannee River to Yankeetown, FL A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 88.4 West. Isaias is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected on Friday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday and make landfall within the warning area late Friday or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Isaias could briefly become a major hurricane early Friday. Although some weakening is forecast thereafter, Isaias will remain a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast late Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). NOAA buoy 42001 in the central Gulf recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust of 56 mph (90 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dauphin Island, AL to Indian Pass, FL...5-7 ft Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...4-6 ft Ocean Springs, MS to Dauphin Island, AL...4-6 ft Mobile Bay...4-6 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...3-5 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Suwannee River, FL...3-5 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft Yankeetown, FL to Egmont Key, FL...1-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area Friday night into early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas on Friday and Friday night. RAINFALL: From Friday through the weekend, Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia. Localized totals up to 15 inches are possible, particularly within banding across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Across the coastal Carolinas, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with localized totals up to 8 inches are possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches, are possible across much of the remainder of the Southeast. Flash and urban flooding is likely across the region, with considerable impacts possible across much of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia. River flooding is also expected, some of which could be significant. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. TORNADOES: A risk for tornadoes will begin Friday evening in coastal areas of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and far southwest Georgia. The tornado threat will continue through Saturday for parts of eastern Alabama into Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells from Isaias are affecting the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and will spread northward toward the Gulf Coast on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Every advisory
Official products
- Public advisory ↗ issued Oct 9, 3:00 AM UTC
- Forecast advisory ↗ issued Oct 9, 3:00 AM UTC
- Forecast discussion ↗ issued Oct 9, 3:00 AM UTC
- Forecast cone and graphics ↗