Climate Prediction Center
El Niño and La Niña
ENSO Alert System Status
El Niño Advisory
El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance).
NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of October 8, 2026. Next: November 12, 2026. Original ↗
- RONI, JAS 2026
- +1.69°C
- El Niño chance, SON
- 100%
- La Niña chance, MJJ
- 13%
- Threshold
- ±0.5°C
The odds, season by season
CPC's official chances of La Niña, neutral conditions and El Niño for each three-month season ahead. El Niño and La Niña are a three-month average of sea surface temperatures in the east-central equatorial Pacific at least 0.5 °C above or below normal (the Relative Oceanic Niño Index).
- Sep–Nov 2026 SONLa Niña 0% · Neutral 0% · El Niño 100%
- Oct–Dec 2026 ONDLa Niña 0% · Neutral 0% · El Niño 100%
- Nov 2026–Jan 2027 NDJLa Niña 0% · Neutral 0% · El Niño 100%
- Dec 2026–Feb 2027 DJFLa Niña 0% · Neutral 0% · El Niño 100%
- Jan–Mar 2027 JFMLa Niña 0% · Neutral 0% · El Niño 100%
- Feb–Apr 2027 FMALa Niña 0% · Neutral 2% · El Niño 98%
- Mar–May 2027 MAMLa Niña 0% · Neutral 15% · El Niño 85%
- Apr–Jun 2027 AMJLa Niña 1% · Neutral 54% · El Niño 45%
- May–Jul 2027 MJJLa Niña 13% · Neutral 70% · El Niño 17%
La NiñaNeutralEl NiñoCPC probabilities ↗
What it does to hurricane seasons
In NOAA's words, El Niño "favors stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and suppresses it in the Atlantic basin", and La Niña does the reverse. The cause is mostly vertical wind shear, the change in wind speed and direction with height, which can tear a developing storm apart. NOAA Climate.gov ↗
These are odds across a season. One landfall makes a bad season for the coast it hits, in any phase.
Every season from 1971 to 2025, by phase
El Niño · 15 seasons
- Atlantic, a season on average
- 9.8 · 4.3 · 1.7
- Eastern and central Pacific
- 17.3 · 9.6 · 5.3
Neutral · 23 seasons
- Atlantic, a season on average
- 13.5 · 6.9 · 2.6
- Eastern and central Pacific
- 17.9 · 10.1 · 4.7
La Niña · 17 seasons
- Atlantic, a season on average
- 15.6 · 8.1 · 3.9
- Eastern and central Pacific
- 15.1 · 8 · 3.9
Storms · hurricanes · major hurricanes (Category 3+). Storms are tropical or subtropical storms or stronger. Our count, from NHC's best-track archive (HURDAT2) and CPC's RONI: each year takes the phase of its August–October value, the peak of both seasons. A single season's value, not CPC's five-season episode rule. From 1971: earlier eastern Pacific records are incomplete.
The strongest El Niño seasons
- 1997ASO +2.07 °CAtlantic: 8 storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 majorPacific: 19 storms, 11 hurricanes, 9 major
- 2015ASO +1.80 °CAtlantic: 11 storms, 4 hurricanes, 2 majorPacific: 26 storms, 17 hurricanes, 11 major
- 1972ASO +1.64 °CAtlantic: 12 storms, 2 hurricanes, 0 majorPacific: 14 storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 major
- 1982ASO +1.64 °CAtlantic: 6 storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 majorPacific: 23 storms, 12 hurricanes, 5 major
- 1987ASO +1.34 °CAtlantic: 7 storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 majorPacific: 20 storms, 10 hurricanes, 4 major
What it means this winter, region by region
El Niño's effects on US weather fall mostly between October and March. NOAA's winter outlook (October 15, 2026) expects this strong El Niño to shift the jet stream south and east, which tilts the odds toward a stormier, wetter winter across the southern US, from California to Florida, and along the Eastern Seaboard. These are odds for a season, not a forecast for any storm: the warnings that matter are the ones on each state's alert page.
California and the Southwest
Atmospheric rivers · heavy rain · flooding
Over the past 30 years, El Niño winters have brought more atmospheric rivers ashore on the West Coast than usual, and La Niña winters fewer (NOAA Climate.gov).
Here the signal depends on strength. In 1982–83 and 1997–98, two of the strongest El Niños on record, rain was far above the median across all of California; strong events in 1991–92 and 2009–10 brought only small surpluses in the south (NOAA Climate.gov).
Alerts now:CaliforniaArizonaNevadaNew Mexico
Texas, the Gulf Coast and the Southeast
Heavy rain · flooding · a stormier winter
NOAA's most reliable El Niño signal in the US: a wetter October to March along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida, in more than 80% of El Niño events over the past 100 years. In strong events the Gulf Coast and Southeast have been wetter than average consistently (NOAA Climate.gov).
NOAA's outlook for this winter tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South, and warns that heavy rain on dry ground can bring flash floods (NOAA).
The East Coast
Nor'easters · coastal flooding · rain or snow
Research from the U.S. Naval Academy shows El Niño can increase the number of strong winter storms along the Atlantic coast, the nor'easters, which can flood the coast when onshore winds last across several tide cycles (NWS Wilmington, NC).
Around Washington and Baltimore, strong El Niño winters have averaged warmer and wetter, with a stronger subtropical jet bringing more storms up from the south. Snowfall averaged above normal, most of all in moderate events, but no two El Niño winters are alike (NWS Baltimore/Washington).
Alerts now:North CarolinaVirginiaMarylandNew JerseyNew YorkMassachusetts
The Ohio Valley, the Northwest and Hawaii
Often drier
El Niño winters lean drier in the Ohio Valley, with a less reliable dry signal in the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Hawaii often has below-average rain from late fall to early spring (NOAA Climate.gov). Drier on average still means storms: a single one can bring flooding or a winter storm warning.
For the chances of a warmer, colder, wetter or drier season where you are, see CPC's seasonal outlooks. For snow at ski resorts, snowpack.report has an El Niño ski forecast. If a flood or winter storm warning would find you asleep, a NOAA Weather Radio set to your county wakes you for it.
The full discussion
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory Synopsis: El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance). El Niño strengthened further last month, with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +4.0°C in portions of the eastern equatorial Pacific [Fig. 1]. Most Niño indices increased in the past month, reaching +2.1°C in Niño-3.4, +3.0°C in Niño-3, and +3.9°C in Niño-1+2 [Fig. 2]. The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180°-100°W) was well above average [Fig. 3], reflecting a deeper-than-average thermocline. Subsurface temperatures remained in excess of +10.0°C at depth in the eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies stretched from the western to the east-central equatorial Pacific. Enhanced convection and rainfall persisted from the central to the eastern Pacific, while anomalies remained suppressed over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were significantly negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a strengthening El Niño. The CPC Official ENSO outlook, which synthesizes multiple models from North America and abroad, indicates El Niño will continue to strengthen through the end of the year [Figs. 6 -7 -8]. Chances remain high for a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950 (+2.5°C or more for a 3-month RONI value): the chance is 54% for September-November, 83% for October-December, and 70% for November-January. With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed (see CPC outlooks for probabilities of seasonal anomalies). In summary, El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance).
