Where storms could form

Areas where a tropical cyclone could form in the next 2 and 7 days, and the chance it does, from the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook.

Formation areas

Atlantic: 10% chance in 7 days (Low), 10% in 2 days (Low)
Pacific: 80% chance in 7 days (High), 0% in 2 days (Low)

NHC outlook areas issued Oct 2, 5:22 AM UTC · nhc.noaa.gov

Atlantic

National Hurricane Center · issued Oct 2, 5:16 AM UTC · source


000
ABNT20 KNHC 020516
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Subtropical Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay):
An area of low pressure associated with the remnants of former 
Tropical Storm Fay is located several hundred miles southeast of 
Bermuda. Despite ongoing thunderstorm activity, dry air and strong 
upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant re-development 
while it moves northwestward, to the east of Bermuda. Any formation 
chances should end by Sunday due to very strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

Eastern North Pacific

National Hurricane Center · issued Oct 2, 5:22 AM UTC · source


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020522
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Nolo, located several hundred miles west-northwest of Lihue, 
Hawaii, and on Hurricane Rachel, located a couple of hundred miles 
south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. 

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend or 
early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter, 
environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next 
week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to 
northwestward. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Gibbs

Central North Pacific

Central Pacific Hurricane Center · issued Oct 2, 5:21 AM UTC · source


000
ACPN50 PHFO 020521
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM HST Thu Oct 01 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Nolo, located several hundred miles west-northwest of Lihue,
Hawaii, and on Hurricane Rachel, located a couple of hundred miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Gibbs
NNNN