Isaias, advisory 9A

000
WTNT34 KNHC 082351
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092026
700 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026
 
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND 
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 88.8W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS
* East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Yankeetown, FL
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected 
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to 
completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible 
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your 
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located 
near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 88.8 West. Isaias is moving 
toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north 
is expected on Friday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to 
approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday and make landfall 
within the warning area late Friday or early Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through early Friday. 
Isaias should remain a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the 
northern Gulf Coast Friday night.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km). NOAA buoy 42001 in the central Gulf recently 
reported sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust of 42 mph 
(68 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Ocean Springs, MS to Indian Pass, FL...5-7 ft
Mobile Bay...5-7 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...3-5 ft
Steinhatchee River, FL to Suwannee River, FL...3-5 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning 
area Friday night into early Saturday, with tropical storm 
conditions beginning on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are 
expected in the warning areas on Friday and Friday night.
 
RAINFALL: From Friday through the weekend, Isaias is expected to
produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama,
the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia. Localized
totals up to 15 inches are possible, particularly within banding
across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Across the coastal
Carolinas, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with localized totals up to 8
inches are possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with
localized amounts up to 5 inches, are possible across much of the
remainder of the Southeast. Flash and urban flooding is likely
across the region, with considerable impacts possible across much of
southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern
Georgia. River flooding is also expected, some of which could be
significant.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall 
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and 
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
 
TORNADOES: An isolated risk for tornadoes will begin Friday night in 
coastal areas of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and far southwestern 
Georgia. The tornado threat will continue Saturday for eastern 
Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle.
 
SURF: Swells from Isaias are affecting the western and northern 
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and will spread northward toward 
the Gulf Coast on Friday. These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents

 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart