Isaias, advisory 15
Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Advisory Number 15
Public advisory
National Hurricane Center · public advisory 15 · issued Oct 10, 8:43 AM UTCsource ↗
000 WTNT34 KNHC 100843 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026 ...FLASH FLOODING RISK CONTINUES WITH ISAIAS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 86.5W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 86.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected today. A motion toward the north-northeast or northeast is forecast on Sunday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to move across Alabama and into the Tennessee Valley later today and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast today, and Isaias is forecast to dissipate on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Through the weekend, Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia. Localized totals up to 15 inches are possible, particularly within banding across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Across much of the remainder of the Southeast, rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches are expected. Localized higher amounts up to 10 inches are possible, especially across the Southern Appalachians and coastal Carolinas. Flash, urban, and river flooding is possible across the region, with considerable impacts likely across much of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia. Considerable flash flooding and landslides are also possible across the Southern Appalachians. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. TORNADOES: A risk for tornadoes will persist this morning through this afternoon across parts of the eastern Florida Panhandle, Georgia, and the Carolinas. STORM SURGE: Water levels will continue to recede along the Florida Gulf Coast throughout the day. SURF: Swells from Isaias will continue to affect much of the Gulf coasts of the United States, Mexico, and western Cuba this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 1000 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov. Rainfall forecasts for the United States are at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php $$ Forecaster Blake
Forecast discussion
National Hurricane Center · forecast discussion 15 · issued Oct 10, 8:45 AM UTCsource ↗
000 WTNT44 KNHC 100845 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026 Isaias has very rapidly weakened over Alabama and has transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone. Satellite images show that all deep convection has been scoured well northward away from the low-level center, with a warm front extending eastward from the former tropical cyclone. Thus this is the last advisory on Isaias, with an initial intensity of 30 kt set from surface observations. The cyclone should move northward and north-northeastward this weekend and gradually weaken as it moves across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. No significant changes were made to the track or intensity forecasts, except lower wind speed on day 1. Note there is still a risk of some high wind gusts over the southern Appalachians as the cyclone moves just to the west of those mountains, along with the potential for heavy rain causing flash floods. This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in discussions issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 1000 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov. Rainfall forecasts for the United States are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with the post-tropical remnants of Isaias will be spreading quickly northward into the Tennessee Valley, Southern Appalachians and Southeast today. Considerable flash and urban flooding will be possible. Landslides are also possible across the Southern Appalachians. Additional heavy rains are possible across portions of Northwest Florida and heavy rains are also possible across coastal Southwest Florida, resulting in flash and urban flooding. 2. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid areas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 32.0N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 10/1800Z 33.7N 86.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 11/0600Z 35.2N 86.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 11/1800Z 37.6N 82.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
