Isaias, advisory 14

000
WTNT34 KNHC 100245
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092026
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026
 
...ISAIAS MOVING OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT SPREADS INLAND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 86.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM ENE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Hurricane Warning west of the Mississippi/Alabama border has
been discontinued.
 
The Tropical Storm Warning west of Ocean Springs, MS, has been
discontinued.
 
The Storm Surge Warning west of Dauphin Island, AL, has been
discontinued.
 
The Storm Surge Watch east of Suwannee River, FL has been
discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Dauphin Island, AL to the Suwannee River
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was 
located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 86.5 West. Isaias is 
moving toward the north near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general 
motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A motion toward the 
north-northeast or northeast is forecast on Sunday. On the forecast 
track, Isaias is expected to move across Alabama and into the 
Tennessee Valley Saturday and Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, but Isaias is
expected to continue producing gusty winds well inland through
Saturday even after it becomes post-tropical.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Dauphin Island, AL to Aucilla River, FL...3-5 ft
Aucilla River, FL to Suwannee River, FL...2-4 ft
Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Dauphin Island, AL...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions, particularly in gusts, are expected
through early Saturday within the Hurricane Warning area.
Hurricane-force winds are expected to spread inland as far as 100
miles from the coast into southern Alabama. Tropical storm
conditions are ongoing in the tropical storm warning area.
 
RAINFALL: From Friday through the weekend, Isaias is expected to
produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama,
the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia. Localized
totals up to 15 inches are possible, particularly within banding
across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend.
 
Across much of the remainder of the Southeast, rainfall amounts of 2
to 5 inches are expected.  Localized higher amounts up to 10 inches
are possible, especially across the Southern Appalachians and
coastal Carolinas.
 
Flash, urban, and river flooding is possible across the region, with
considerable impacts likely across much of southern Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia. Considerable flash
flooding and landslides are also possible across the Southern
Appalachians.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
 
TORNADOES: A risk for tornadoes will persist tonight across the
Florida Panhandle and north Florida into southern Georgia. The
tornado threat will continue Saturday across parts of the Florida
Panhandle, Georgia, and the Carolinas.
 
SURF: Swells from Isaias are affecting much of the Gulf coasts of
the United States, Mexico, and western Cuba. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

000
WTNT44 KNHC 100246
TCDAT4
 
Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092026
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026
 
Isaias made landfall as a 90-kt hurricane at 0130 UTC near Destin,
Florida. Since that time, the radar structure of the storm has
continued to degrade as strong vertical wind shear disrupts the
circulation. However, Eglin AFB (KEVX) radar data and surface
observations indicate damaging, gusty winds are persisting in the
residual northern eyewall and in a band wrapping around the western
side of the circulation. Now that the system is farther inland and
losing organization, the initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt for
this advisory.
 
Isaias is rapidly losing tropical characteristics, and it is 
forecast to become post-tropical within the next 12 h while it 
continues moving quickly northward through Alabama. Although the 
sustained surface winds associated with Isaias will quickly weaken 
now that the storm is inland, damaging wind gusts associated with 
the system are expected to extend well inland through Saturday, 
especially in areas of higher terrain. Because of this, the gust 
factors in the forecast have been slightly increased during the 
first 24 h. A turn toward the northeast is forecast later this 
weekend, bringing the center of the system into the Tennessee Valley 
before it dissipates.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected from Dauphin Island,
Alabama, to Suwannee, Florida where a Storm Surge Warning remains in
effect. Residents in the warning area should continue to follow
advice given by local officials.
 
2. Extremely dangerous and damaging hurricane-force winds,
especially in gusts, are expected over portions of the Florida
Panhandle and southern Alabama where a Hurricane Warning remains in
effect. Residents in these areas should have a safe room to ride out
the storm and prepare for long-duration power outages.
 
3. Damaging wind gusts are likely over a large portion of the
southeastern United States from western and northern Georgia and the
southern Appalachians, westward over much of central and northern
Alabama, southern middle Tennessee, and Mississippi, especially in
areas of higher terrain. Residents should secure loose outdoor
items, avoid driving high-profile vehicles, prepare for power
outages, and be aware of the potential for falling trees.
 
4. Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S.
Gulf coast and much of the Southeast through the weekend.
Considerable flash and urban flooding, along with significant river
flooding, will be possible. Landslides are also possible across the
Southern Appalachians.
 
5. The tornado potential will continue through tonight. The greatest
risk will be east of the center, particularly across the Florida
Panhandle into southern Georgia. This risk will continue spreading
north-northeast across parts of the Southeast on Saturday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 30.8N  86.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 32.7N  86.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  11/0000Z 34.7N  86.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  11/1200Z 36.9N  84.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  12/0000Z 39.0N  80.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart