Isaias, advisory 2
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 2
Public advisory
National Hurricane Center · public advisory 2 · issued Oct 7, 2:54 AM UTCsource ↗
000 WTNT34 KNHC 070254 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 95.0W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the U.S. northern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 95.0 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). An east-northwestward motion is expected on Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the northeast and north on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm early Wednesday and a hurricane on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches through Thursday across coastal portions of the Bay of Campeche with isolated higher amounts possible in the states of Campeche and western Yucatan. From Friday through the weekend, the system is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with localized totals up to 10 inches, across the central U.S. Gulf Coast extending from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Nine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Gusty winds are possible in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday. SURF: Swells are expected to affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Thursday and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast late this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Forecast discussion
National Hurricane Center · forecast discussion 2 · issued Oct 7, 2:55 AM UTCsource ↗
000 WTNT44 KNHC 070255 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026 The convective organization of the depression has not changed much since the prior advisory. Much of the associated deep convection is displaced slightly to the north of the estimated surface center, but recently a new convective burst has emerged closer to this location. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for now, consistent with the latest T2.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB. An ASCAT-C pass is expected to arrive shortly after this advisory issuance and will be helpful in reassessing the position and intensity of the system. The depression is moving slowly eastward (080/4 kt) within weak steering currents to the south of an upper trough over the southeastern United States. The track models are in good agreement that the system should move eastward to east-northeastward through Thursday while passing to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. While the center is forecast to remain well offshore, its passage will likely produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. A turn toward the northeast and north is predicted by Friday as the system moves within the flow between a shortwave trough over Texas and a strengthening ridge over the western Atlantic. There remains significant along- and cross-track spread in the track guidance regarding this northward turn, with the AI-based models on the right side of the envelope and generally faster than the physics-based guidance. The updated NHC forecast is slower than the previous one from 48-96 h to bring it closer to the latest corrected consensus (HCCA), but remains on the fast and right side of the latest models. Users should closely monitor forecast updates given the below-average confidence in this forecast. High oceanic heat content, moist mid-levels, and upper-level divergence should allow the compact system to intensify during the next few days. The only limiting factor appears to be southwesterly vertical wind shear, which is forecast to strengthen later this week as the system approaches the northern Gulf Coast. Most skillful models show the system becoming a hurricane over the central Gulf, and the latest forecast shows a similar rate of intensification and peak intensity as the prior forecast, generally following the more aggressive Google DeepMind and HCCA aids. Due to strong shear, it is likely that the system peaks in strength before reaching the coast as a hurricane. The cyclone is also expected to grow in size as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast, and the anticipated convective and motion asymmetries will likely cause rain and wind impacts to extend far from the center on the eastern side of the storm. Key Messages: 1. There is an increasing risk of dangerous wind and storm surge impacts along portions of the northern Gulf Coast, and watches could be required on Wednesday. Residents from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. 2. The system will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast Friday into the weekend. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible. 3. Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico: The depression is expected to strengthen and could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portion of the Yucatan Peninsula in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 22.1N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 22.2N 94.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 22.5N 92.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 23.2N 91.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 24.3N 89.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 26.1N 88.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 28.8N 88.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 34.1N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/0000Z 39.0N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Reinhart