Simon, advisory 2

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 072039
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Simon Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026
300 PM CST Wed Oct 07 2026
 
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM SIMON...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 101.6W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.  Watches will likely be required for a
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico tonight.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Simon was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 101.6 West.  Simon is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this 
general motion is expected to continue through tomorrow, followed 
by a turn toward the northwest and north on Friday.  On the 
forecast track, the center of Simon is expected to remain south of 
Mexico through Friday, but approach the coast of southwestern Mexico 
on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Continued strengthening is forecast during 
the next 48 hours, and Simon is expected to become a hurricane 
by late Thursday.  It could become a major hurricane by Saturday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone 
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12
inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum
totals between 15 and 25 inches possible across portions of Colima
and Michoacan through Sunday.  This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf.
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 072039
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Simon Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026
300 PM CST Wed Oct 07 2026

The system continues to gradually become better organized on 
satellite imagery with convective banding features becoming more 
prominent.  The latest subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB 
had a T-number of 2.5, corresponding to an intensity of 35 kt.  On 
this basis, the cyclone is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Simon 
for this advisory.  The storm has developed upper-level anticyclonic 
outflow over all quadrants of the circulation.

ASCAT-B scatterometer data suggested that the center of the cyclone 
is a little north of the previous track, but the overall motion 
still appears to be toward the west-northwest, or about 300/7 kt.  
Simon is likely to continue this general west-northwestward motion 
for the next day or so, to the south of a weak mid-level ridge.  By 
Friday, the system should turn northwestward and then northward 
ahead of a 500 mb trough approaching Baja California. In 3-5 days, 
the cyclone should move generally northward between a mid-level 
anticyclone and the trough near Baja California.  The official 
forecast track remains on the right side of the guidance envelope, 
and is close to the Google DeepMind ensemble mean.
 
For the next few days, Simon is expected to remain within an 
environment of low vertical wind shear and moist low- to mid-level 
air, while moving over waters of high oceanic heat content.  These 
factors should result in a significant increase in intensity this 
week, and the system is likely to strengthen into a hurricane, 
and then into a major hurricane later this week.  The NHC intensity 
forecast is a little above the intensity model consensus, IVCN.

Key Messages:

1. Simon is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Thursday 
night and approach the west-central coast of Mexico as a major 
hurricane on Saturday. 

2. There is a risk of dangerous wind and storm surge impacts along 
portions of the west-central coast of Mexico over the weekend and 
into early next week, and watches could be required by tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of 
southwestern Mexico later this week and into the weekend. This 
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas of steep terrain.

4. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central 
coast of Mexico through the weekend.  These swells are likely to 
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please 
consult products from your local weather office.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 15.5N 101.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 15.9N 102.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 16.3N 104.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 16.6N 104.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 17.0N 105.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  10/0600Z 17.8N 105.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 18.9N 105.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 21.2N 105.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  12/1800Z 23.6N 106.7W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch