Simon, advisory 3

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 080233
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Simon Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026
900 PM CST Wed Oct 07 2026
 
...SIMON FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 102.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.  Watches will likely be required for a
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico later tonight into 
Thursday.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Simon was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 102.5 West. Simon is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through Thursday, followed by a turn
toward the northwest and north on Friday.  On the forecast track,
the center of Simon is expected to remain south of Mexico through
Friday, but approach the coast of southwestern Mexico on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Simon is
expected to become a major hurricane by late Friday or early
Saturday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12
inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum
totals between 15 and 25 inches possible across portions of Colima
and Michoacan through Sunday.  This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 080234
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Simon Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026
900 PM CST Wed Oct 07 2026
 
Simon has continued to become better organized on satellite imagery 
over the past 6 hours with a large area of deep convection and 
improved curved banding.  A recent WSF-M microwave pass also shows 
improved curved banding structure.  The latest subjective Dvorak 
classification from TAFB was 3.0/45 kt, and the initial intensity 
has been raised to 45 kt accordingly, and this could be 
conservative.
 
Environmental conditions are quite favorable for significant
intensification.  The SHIPS Rapid Intensity Index indicates greater
than a 50 percent chance of 55 kt of strengthening over the next   
48 h.  Most of the hurricane regional models, as well as HCCA and 
GDMI show significant intensification over the next couple of days, 
and the NHC intensity forecast has been increased accordingly.  The 
NHC forecast now indicates a 110 kt intensity at 60 and 72 h, and 
this is at the high end of the model suite, in good agreement with 
the HCCA model.
 
The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 290 degrees at 8 kt. 
Simon is likely to continue this general west-northwestward motion 
for the next day or so, to the south of a weak mid-level ridge.  By 
Friday, the system should turn northwestward and then northward 
ahead of a 500 mb trough approaching Baja California. In 3-5 days, 
the cyclone should move generally northward between a mid-level 
anticyclone and the trough near Baja California.  The official 
forecast track has been shifted a bit to the left from 12-60 hours, 
but is nearly on top of the previous track from days 3 to 5, and is 
quite similar to the latest HFIP corrected consensus approach 
(HCCA).  The forecast takes Simon toward the coast of west-central 
Mexico as a dangerous major hurricane in a few days.  There is a 
fair amount of spread in the guidance, and that is important to note 
because Simon is forecast to be moving nearly parallel to the 
coastline in about 72 hours when it nears west-central Mexico.  A 
track farther west would keep Simon over water longer, but a track 
farther east would mean a sooner landfall.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Simon is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Thursday 
night and approach the west-central coast of Mexico as a major 
hurricane on Saturday. There is a risk of dangerous wind and storm 
surge impacts along portions of this coast over the weekend and into 
early next week, and watches could be required overnight into early 
Thursday.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of
southwestern Mexico later this week and into the weekend. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
3. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central
coast of Mexico through the weekend.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 15.6N 102.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 15.8N 103.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 16.1N 104.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 16.4N 105.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 16.9N 105.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  10/1200Z 17.8N 105.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 18.9N 105.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 21.6N 105.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 24.2N 106.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen