Simon, advisory 1
Tropical Depression Twenty-E Advisory Number 1
Public advisory
National Hurricane Center · public advisory 1 · issued Oct 7, 2:57 PM UTCsource ↗
000 WTPZ35 KNHC 071457 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 900 AM CST Wed Oct 07 2026 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 100.9W ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 100.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Forecast discussion
National Hurricane Center · forecast discussion 1 · issued Oct 7, 2:58 PM UTCsource ↗
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 071458 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 900 AM CST Wed Oct 07 2026 Visible satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance south of Mexico has continued to become better organized. Curved convective bands are evolving over the northern and western quadrants of the system. The low-level circulation, although a bit elongated from southwest to northeast, is significantly well-defined to designate the formation of a tropical cyclone. The advisory intensity is set at 30 kt in accordance with a Dvorak estimate of T2.0 from TAFB. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 300/7 kt. The cyclone is expected to continue on a generally west-northwestward track for the next couple of days, along the southern side of a weak mid-level ridge. In 48 hours, the system is likely to turn toward the northwest in response to a 500 mb trough approaching the Baja California peninsula. Thereafter, the cyclone should move generally northward on the southeastern side of the trough. The official track forecast is on the right side of the guidance envelope. Since the cyclone will be in an environment of low vertical wind shear, abundant low- to mid-level moisture, and very warm sea surface temperatures, steady strengthening is forecast this week. The system is likely to become a hurricane in 48 hours or so. The official forecast is close to the intensity model consensus. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 14.1N 100.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 14.6N 102.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 15.0N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 15.3N 104.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 15.8N 104.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 16.4N 105.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 17.2N 105.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 19.7N 105.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 22.0N 106.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch