Nineteen-E, advisory 6

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 302032
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192026
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2026
 
...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 127.0W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 127.0
West. The depression is moving toward the east near 14 mph (22 
km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion is expected over the
next day or so.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, 
and this system is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical 
remnant low by late Thursday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 302033
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192026
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Although the depression has a well-defined circulation, convection 
has fallen apart this afternoon, with the low-level circulation 
almost totally exposed.  Satellite intensity estimates are falling 
again, so the initial wind speed is set to 25 kt using a blend of 
the objective and subjective values.  

The depression is moving eastward at about 12 kt.  This general 
motion is expected during the next couple of days as the depression 
moves south of the remnants of Odalys and eventually starts to move 
on the southwestern side of Rachel's much larger circulation.  The 
track forecast is shifted a little to the north, mostly based on 
a more precise initial positions from visible satellite images.

Little change in intensity is shown for the depression due to 
moderate shear and plentiful dry mid-level air, somewhat countered 
by warming SSTs.  The shear is forecast to increase somewhat along 
with a bit drier mid-level environment, which is likely to bring an 
end to any organized convection.  Thus, the depression is forecast 
to become a remnant low in about 24 hours, similar to the latest 
global models simulated satellite data.  I will just mention some 
of the guidance is showing some re-intensification on Thursday, but 
that is deemed unlikely due to the unfavorable environmental 
factors listed above.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/2100Z 14.9N 127.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 15.2N 125.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 15.3N 123.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/0600Z 15.3N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake