Nineteen-E, advisory 5
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 5
Public advisory
National Hurricane Center · public advisory 5 · issued Sep 30, 2:46 PM UTCsource ↗
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 301446 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192026 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 30 2026 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 128.4W ABOUT 1345 MI...2165 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 128.4 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 10 mph (17 km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion is expected over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, and this system is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by late Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Adams
Forecast discussion
National Hurricane Center · forecast discussion 5 · issued Sep 30, 2:47 PM UTCsource ↗
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 301447 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192026 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 30 2026 Convection has increased near Tropical Depression Nineteen-E, with cloud-top temperatures falling below -70C in the deepest convection. Recent satellite imagery also shows strong upper-level outflow. However, the depression continues to contend with approximately 20 kt of easterly wind shear and relatively dry mid-level air, which could limit the persistence of this recent increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. Recent subjective and objective intensity estimates range from 25-32 kt. Based on the increasing convection and the available intensity estimates, the initial intensity has been raised to 30 kt for this advisory. Nineteen-E is moving eastward around 9 kt. The tropical depression is expected to continue on an eastward to east-northeastward heading over the next day or so, primarily steered by the low-level flow associated with a northward-displaced monsoon trough. The latest NHC track forecast has been nudged to the left of the previous advisory and remains near the middle of the forecast envelope. Similar unfavorable environmental conditions, including moderate wind shear and a relatively dry mid-level environment, are expected over the next day and will likely prevent any additional intensification. Beyond 24 h, increasing wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures should induce weakening, and Nineteen-E is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by late Thursday. The latest NHC intensity forecast maintains a steady intensity through the next 24 h, followed by weakening and eventual dissipation forecast by 48 h, consistent with the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 14.3N 128.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 14.7N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 14.9N 124.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 15.0N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Adams
