Fay, advisory 20
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 20
Public advisory
National Hurricane Center · public advisory 20 · issued Sep 25, 2:48 AM UTCsource ↗
000 WTNT31 KNHC 250248 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026 ...FAY HOLDING STEADY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 42.3W ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 42.3 West. Fay is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and is expected to shift west-southwest over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible over the next 12 hours. Thereafter, gradual weakening is expected through the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Evans/Kelly
Forecast discussion
National Hurricane Center · forecast discussion 20 · issued Sep 25, 2:49 AM UTCsource ↗
000 WTNT41 KNHC 250249 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026 Fay has developed a more consistent area of deep convection about its center since the last advisory. Little has changed with the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates of this storm, however. CIMSS-UW objective estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, while TAFB rated Fay at 3.0 or 45 kt. Because of this, Fay's initial intensity has been held steady at 45 kt. The initial motion remains at 270/5 kt. Fay's forward motion is expected to remain slow as its steering environment is characterized by weak easterly winds within the Atlantic subtropical high. Over the next 24 h, Fay is expected to shift west-southwest and then southwest as high pressure amplifies to its west. At the same time, Fay's speed is expected to decrease even further. The latest track forecast reflects this trend toward the southwest, and closely follows HCCA guidance. With convection deepening on satellite imagery, Fay could experience a brief increase in intensity overnight, before steady weakening is forecast as the storm experiences increasingly drier mid-level air and vertical wind shear. While global forecast models suggest that Fay will lose its convection over the weekend, its closed circulation may persist into the middle of next week, allowing Fay to remain a post-tropical remnant low during that time. The main change for the latest forecast was to reflect a later dissipation time, but otherwise Fay's overall trend remains the same. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 29.8N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 29.8N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 29.7N 43.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 29.6N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 29.5N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 27/1200Z 29.4N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z 29.0N 46.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Evans/Kelly
