Fay, advisory 21
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 21
Public advisory
National Hurricane Center · public advisory 21 · issued Sep 25, 8:46 AM UTCsource ↗
000 WTNT31 KNHC 250846 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026 ...FAY MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 42.8W ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 42.8 West. Fay is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A gradual turn to the west-southwest then southwest at a slower forward speed is expected over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next 12 hours. Thereafter, gradual weakening is expected through the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Forecast discussion
National Hurricane Center · forecast discussion 21 · issued Sep 25, 8:47 AM UTCsource ↗
000 WTNT41 KNHC 250847 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026 Fay continues to produce bursts of deep convection near and to the west of the low-level center this morning, remaining resilient to the dry mid-level environment. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range between 35 to 48 kt. Using these estimates, the initial intensity is maintained at 45 kt for this advisory. Given warm sea-surface temperatures of 27-28 deg C, some slight strengthening is possible during the next 12 h or so. However, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase later tonight. As the shear increases and the mid-levels remain quite dry, with relative humidity values in the mid 30s, Fay should gradually weaken. The system is expected to lose deep convection once again over the weekend, becoming a post-tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is in good agreement with the tightly clustered intensity guidance. The only change to the forecast is that dissipation has been delayed, as the global models continue to show the remnant low meandering over the central Atlantic for a few more days. The storm continues to move westward with an estimated initial motion of 270/5 kt along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge. A gradual turn toward the west-southwest and then southwest is expected to being in a day or so as Fay becomes a vertically shallow cyclone and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the HCCA corrected consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 29.8N 42.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 29.7N 43.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 29.7N 44.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 29.5N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 29.3N 45.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 27/1800Z 29.0N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z 28.5N 46.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0600Z 27.6N 46.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
