Trudy, advisory 6

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 142045
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Trudy Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026
300 PM CST Wed Oct 14 2026
 
...TRUDY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 100.0W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in southwestern and west-central Mexico should monitor the 
progress of Trudy. Watches will likely be required tonight or 
Thursday for portions of these areas.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Trudy was
located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 100.0 West. Trudy is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn 
toward the north-northwest on Thursday. On the forecast track,
Trudy could approach the coast of southwestern Mexico on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during 
the next couple of days, and Trudy is forecast to become a major 
hurricane on Friday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Trudy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Through the weekend, Trudys outer bands are expected to 
produce 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 6 inches 
along the southwest Mexican coast between Guerrero and Jalisco. This 
rainfall may result in localized flash flooding, especially in areas 
along steep terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Trudy are expected to begin affecting
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico late this week and
continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 142047
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Trudy Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026
300 PM CST Wed Oct 14 2026
 
Trudy continues to become better organized, with the central 
convective mass becoming larger and colder.  Recent SAR, ASCAT and 
SSMIS passes give higher confidence that the center position is now 
embedded underneath the middle of the impressive-looking convective 
overcast.  The latest TAFB intensity estimate is 4.0/65 kt, and 
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have been increasing, now in the 
44-51 kt range.  The ASCAT-B pass from around 16Z had a peak wind 
retrieval of 51 kt.  Based on the above data, the initial intensity 
is conservatively set at 55 kt.
 
Based on microwave center fixes over the past 6 to 12 hours, Trudy 
has been moving west-northwestward, or 300/8 kt, to the south of a 
mid-level ridge that extends over central Mexico. However, the ridge 
is expected to weaken on Thursday, as Trudy moves closer to 
Hurricane Simon.  The two tropical cyclones are forecast to be 
within 500 miles of each other by Thursday evening, which could be 
close enough to influence each other's steering.  By Thursday, an 
amplifying mid- to upper-level trough in the west-central Gulf of 
America and this possible interaction with Simon should cause Trudy 
to turn north-northwestward and possibly northward for a time 
Thursday night or Friday.  As Simon finally moves northwest late in 
the forecast period, it should allow the ridge to build back in and 
induce Trudy to make a leftward turn back toward the northwest. 
Since Simon is a small tropical cyclone though, it may not have much 
of an influence on Trudy's track, which could allow Trudy to turn 
west-northwestward and away from the coast of Mexico by the end of 
the forecast period.  The latest NHC track forecast is similar to 
the previous one through 96 hours, but is farther south at day 5, 
indicating a sharper turn toward the west-northwest or west by the 
end of the forecast period.

Environmental conditions continue to look quite favorable along 
Trudy's track through the next 60 hours, although recent NESDIS 
glider observations suggest that Trudy may briefly traverse lower 
ocean heat content for 24 hours between this evening and Thursday 
evening before reaching higher ocean heat content again.  The wind 
shear will remain low through about 60 hours, but the ECMWF-based 
SHIPS guidance shows southwesterly vertical wind shear around 20 kt 
from day 3 to 5.  The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the 
previous one, calling for steady to rapid intensification over the 
next couple of days, peaking around 115 kt around hour 60. This is 
similar to the HCCA, GDMI, HAFS-A, and HAFS-B, all of which peak 
Trudy as a major hurricane between 105-120 kt in about 60 hours.  
After that time, increasing wind shear and drier air should cause 
steady weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast remains near the high 
end of the overall model guidance suite.
 
NHC continues to call for Trudy to get close to the coast of Mexico 
as a major hurricane, and given the track uncertainty, residents of 
southwestern and west-central Mexico should continue to closely 
monitor the progress of Trudy, and be ready to possibly implement 
their hurricane plan.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the
coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico late this week and
into the weekend. There is an increasing risk of wind, rain, and
storm surge impacts, and watches could be required for a portion of
these areas later today or tonight.

2. Large swells will likely begin to affect portions of the coast of 
southwestern Mexico late this week and continue through the weekend. 
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 11.9N 100.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 12.5N 100.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 13.2N 101.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 14.0N 101.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 14.9N 102.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  17/0600Z 15.8N 102.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 16.9N 103.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 18.8N 105.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 19.4N 107.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen