Trudy, advisory 5
Tropical Storm Trudy Advisory Number 5
Public advisory
National Hurricane Center · public advisory 5 · issued Oct 14, 2:55 PM UTCsource ↗
000 WTPZ31 KNHC 141455 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Trudy Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 900 AM CST Wed Oct 14 2026 ...TRUDY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... ...RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 99.5W ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southwestern and west-central Mexico should monitor the progress of Trudy. Watches will likely be required later today or tonight for portions of these areas. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Trudy was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 99.5 West. Trudy is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected by tonight, and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Thursday. On the forecast track, Trudy could approach the coast of southwestern Mexico on Saturday. Satellite imagery indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Trudy is forecast to become a major hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Trudy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. SURF: Swells generated by Trudy are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico late this week and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Forecast discussion
National Hurricane Center · forecast discussion 5 · issued Oct 14, 2:56 PM UTCsource ↗
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 141456 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Trudy Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 900 AM CST Wed Oct 14 2026 Trudy continues to gradually become better organized. Geostationary satellite images show a cold central convective area, with the low-level center likely underneath the western portion of this convection, although there have only been a couple of microwave passes over the past 6 to 12 hours, so confidence in the initial position is still not particularly high. Trudy also has loosely connected outer curved convective bands to the northeast and west. The latest subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB is 3.5/55 kt, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have been ranging from 36 to 45 kt. The intensity is increased to 50 kt for this advisory, since the latest satellite images show continued gradual improvement in the convective organization. Trudy has been moving toward the west-northwest, or 290/11 kt, to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends over central Mexico. However, the ridge is expected to weaken by tomorrow, as Trudy moves closer to Hurricane Simon. The two tropical cyclones, which are currently about 700 n mi apart, are forecast to be within 500 miles of each other by hour 36, possibly close enough to influence each other's steering. By Thursday, increasing mid- to upper-level troughiness in the west-central Gulf of America and steering from potential interaction with Simon should cause Trudy to turn north-northwestward, and possibly northward for a time Thursday night or Friday. As Simon finally moves northwest and weakens late in the forecast period, it should allow the ridge to build back in and induce Trudy to make a leftward turn back toward the northwest. There remains significant track spread among the models, but there has been an overall rightward shift in the model guidance, mainly during the first 60 to 72 h of the forecast, so the new NHC track forecast is well to the east of the previous one through 72 h. The NHC track forecast is slightly to the west of the HCCA and GDMI at 36-72 h. At day 5, the NHC forecast is slightly south of the previous one, but well to the north of the latest GDMI, HCCA, and TVCN, but the forecast that far out is highly uncertain. Environmental conditions continue to look quite favorable along Trudy's track through the next 60 hours, and the NHC forecast continues to call for rapid intensification. By hour 72, there is increasing confidence that Trudy will reach stronger southwesterly wind shear, which should induce significant weakening by days 4 and 5, regardless of how much land interaction Trudy incurs. The NHC intensity forecast is at the high end of the model guidance throughout the entire 5-day period, and is similar to the HCCA and Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean. NHC continues to call for Trudy to get close to the coast of Mexico as a major hurricane, and given the track uncertainty, residents of southwestern and west-central Mexico should continue to closely monitor the progress of Trudy, and be ready to possibly implement their hurricane plan. Key Messages: 1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico late this week and into the weekend. There is an increasing risk of wind, rain, and storm surge impacts, and watches could be required for a portion of these areas later today or tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 11.5N 99.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 12.1N 100.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 12.9N 101.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 13.7N 101.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 14.6N 102.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 15.5N 102.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 16.5N 103.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 18.4N 105.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 19.9N 106.9W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen