Nineteen-E, advisory 1

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 291449
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192026
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 29 2026
 
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED WELL OFFSHORE
OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 131.6W
ABOUT 1535 MI...2470 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 131.6
West. The depression is moving toward the east near 9 mph (15 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression could become a tropical storm later today before 
weakening on Wednesday.  The system is likely to degenerate into a 
post-tropical cyclone by late Thursday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 291451
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192026
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Satellite images indicate that the system well west-southwest of 
Baja California Sur (former Invest EP91) has had enough organized 
deep convection with a well-defined circulation to be considered a 
tropical depression.  The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, 
consistent with an overnight scatterometer pass and a Dvorak 2.0 
from TAFB.  

Although the system has become a tropical depression, the center is 
mostly exposed with moderate shear.  There is a slight chance of the 
system reaching tropical storm intensity later today before it feels 
the cold wake of former Hurricane Odalys by tomorrow.  The 
environment is expected to further dry out during the next couple of 
days with an increase in shear.  These factors should cause the 
depression to weaken by late Wednesday and degenerate into a post- 
tropical cyclone by late Thursday.  The NHC forecast is just above 
the model consensus.

The depression is moving eastward at 8 kt.  This general motion is 
expected for the next few days until dissipation while the cyclone 
remains embedded in westerly flow due to a northward-displaced 
near-equatorial trough, enhanced by both the strong El Nino event 
and western Hemisphere Madden-Julian Oscillation.  The track is 
close to a blend of the ECMWF and GFS models and leans toward the 
HCCA corrected-consensus model.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 14.4N 131.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 14.4N 130.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 14.5N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 14.7N 126.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 14.9N 125.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  02/0000Z 15.0N 123.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake