Hurricane Rachel Advisory Number 17

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 010850
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Rachel Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
200 AM MST Thu Oct 01 2026
 
...RACHEL STRENGTHENING AS IT CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 109.3W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches of warnings in effect.
 
Interests in the southern portion of Baja California Sur should
monitor the progress of Rachel.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rachel was located
near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 109.3 West. Rachel is moving
toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Rachel will continue to move away from mainland
Mexico and pass south of the Baja California Peninsula today.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rachel is expected to continue strengthening and become a
major hurricane within the next couple of days.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Gusts to tropical-storm force are possible along portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico today.
 
RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce additional rainfall totals
of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches,
across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoacn, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect the southwestern coast
of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward along
the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula
through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs 
 

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 010851
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
200 AM MST Thu Oct 01 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Rachel's convective structure has
improved over the past several hours. Deep convection continues to
expand over the center, with cloud-top temperatures as cold as -85
C. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB is
T4.5/77 kt, while objective estimates have ranged from 65 to 85 kt.
Given these estimates and the improved convective organization, the
initial intensity is raised to 85 kt.
 
Rachel continues to move west-northwestward, or 300/5 kt, and this
motion is expected to continue during the next day or so while a
mid- to upper-level trough remains over the southwestern United
States. As the trough lifts northeastward and weakens, a ridge is
forecast to build north of Rachel, causing the system to gradually
turn more toward the west by the weekend. The track guidance remains
in good agreement on this overall scenario, and the latest NHC track
forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous prediction,
lying near the HCCA and GDMI aids.
 
Environmental conditions should remain generally favorable for
strengthening during the next couple of days, with very warm sea
surface temperatures and plenty of mid-level moisture along the
forecast track. Persistent easterly to northeast vertical wind shear
of around 15 kt may be a limiting factor in the short term, but the
shear is forecast to gradually relax thereafter. Rachel should
continue to strengthen over the next 24 h, especially if the
inner-core structure continues to improve, and is forecast to become
a major hurricane within the next couple of days. Thereafter,
progressively cooler sea surface temperatures and dry mid-level air
should induce a gradual weakening trend. The latest NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, lying above the
guidance envelope in the short term before trending toward the upper
end of the guidance thereafter.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 19.4N 109.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 19.6N 109.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 19.8N 110.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 19.9N 111.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 20.2N 112.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 20.4N 113.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 20.5N 114.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 20.6N 116.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 20.7N 119.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs