000
WTPZ33 KNHC 010234
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
Hurricane Rachel Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026
800 PM MST Wed Sep 30 2026
...RACHEL GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 108.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches of warnings in effect.
Interests in the southern portion of Baja California Sur should
monitor the progress of Rachel.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rachel was located
near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 108.5 West. Rachel is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion at
a slower forward speed is expected during the next day or two,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and west later this
week. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to
move away from mainland Mexico and pass south of the Baja California
Peninsula on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rachel could strengthen rapidly tonight and into Thursday and
become a major hurricane within the next couple of days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC.
WIND: Gusts to tropical-storm force are possible along portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight.
RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce additional rainfall totals
of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches,
across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoacn, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf
SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect the southwestern coast
of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward along
the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula
through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 010235
TCDEP3
Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026
800 PM MST Wed Sep 30 2026
Satellite imagery indicates that Rachel's convective structure has
changed little over the past several hours. Deep convection
continues to burst near the center, with cloud-top temperatures as
cold as -85 C. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from
TAFB is T4.5/77 kt, while objective estimates have ranged from 65 to
85 kt. Given these estimates and the persistent deep convection,
the initial intensity is increased to 80 kt.
Rachel continues to move northwestward, or 320/6 kt. A northwestward
motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next day or
so as the cyclone moves along the southwestern periphery of a
mid-level ridge while a mid- to upper-level trough remains over the
southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. As the trough
lifts northeastward and weakens, a ridge is forecast to build north
of Rachel, causing the system to gradually turn west-northwestward
and then westward later this week. The track guidance remains in
good agreement on this overall scenario, and the latest NHC track
forecast is essentially an update of the previous prediction, lying
near the HCCA and GDMI aids.
Environmental conditions should remain generally favorable for
strengthening during the next couple of days, with very warm sea
surface temperatures and plenty of mid-level moisture along the
forecast track. Persistent easterly vertical wind shear of around 15
to 20 kt may be a limiting factor in the short term, but the shear
is forecast to gradually relax thereafter. Rachel could strengthen
rapidly by Thursday, especially if a more persistent inner core
becomes established, and is forecast to become a major hurricane
within the next couple of days. Thereafter, progressively cooler sea
surface temperatures and dry mid-level air should induce a gradual
weakening trend. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory, lying above the guidance envelope in the short
term before trending toward the upper end of the guidance
thereafter.
Key Messages:
1. Although the core of Rachel is forecast to remain offshore of
Mexico, wind gusts of tropical-storm force are possible along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight.
2. Outer bands from Rachel will continue to produce locally heavy
rainfall across portions of coastal southwest Mexico. This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in
areas of steep terrain.
3. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico
and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next several
days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0300Z 19.2N 108.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 19.6N 109.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 19.8N 109.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 20.0N 110.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 20.1N 111.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 20.2N 111.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 20.4N 112.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 20.7N 114.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 20.9N 118.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
Forecaster Gibbs