Pena, advisory 3
Tropical Storm Pena Advisory Number 3
Public advisory
Central Pacific Hurricane Center · public advisory 3 · issued Nov 7, 8:39 AM UTCsource ↗
000 WTPA34 PHFO 070839 TCPCP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pena Advisory Number 3 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP042026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Fri Nov 06 2026 ...PENA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD WELL SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.4N 152.4W ABOUT 1200 MI...1935 KM ESE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pena was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 152.4 West. Pena is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional gradual strengthening is expected to occur during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Forecast discussion
Central Pacific Hurricane Center · forecast discussion 3 · issued Nov 7, 8:40 AM UTCsource ↗
000 WTPA44 PHFO 070840 TCDCP4 Tropical Storm Pena Discussion Number 3 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP042026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Fri Nov 06 2026 The latest satellite imagery indicates that Pena has re-developed convective banding closer to the cyclone's center. In addition, a just-received GMI overpass suggests that the low-level structure has become better defined, with the possible formation of a small inner core. Satellite intensity estimates have generally nudged upward a little since the last advisory, and based on this trend the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt. The latest scatterometer overpass missed the inner core, but did show an area of 25-30 kt winds 60-150 n mi away from the center in the eastern semicircle. The initial motion is westward or 275/10 kt. Pena should be steered generally westward for the next several days by a large low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone, with a west- northwestward motion possible near the end of the forecast period. The track forecast guidance is in generally good agreement with this scenario, although some of the models show a south of west motion during the 24-60 h period. The new track forecast is similar to the previous forecast through 72 h and is a little south of the previous forecast at 96 and 120 h. The intensity forecast still has some confidence issues. The overall environment still seems to be favorable, with warm sea surface temperatures, a moist air mass, and light shear for at least the next four days. This results in the statistical- dynamical guidance showing steady strengthening. However, the dynamical model guidance is in poor agreement on how much strengthening will occur and if there will be any strengthening at all. To highlight the spread of just the global models, the ECMWF shows strengthening through the next five days, the GFS and the Canadian show little development through three days followed by some strengthening, and the UKMET shows essentially no strengthening at all during the forecast period. Given the lack of model consensus even on trends in the forecast intensities, the intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening in best agreement with the SHIPS model. The new forecast is an update of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 11.4N 152.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 11.4N 153.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 11.4N 155.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 11.2N 157.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 11.2N 159.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 11.2N 160.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 11.3N 162.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 11.6N 167.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 12.9N 173.4W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
