Pena, advisory 2
Tropical Storm Pena Advisory Number 2
Public advisory
Central Pacific Hurricane Center · public advisory 2 · issued Nov 7, 2:40 AM UTCsource ↗
000 WTPA34 PHFO 070240 TCPCP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pena Advisory Number 2 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP042026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Fri Nov 06 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM PENA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.2N 151.1W ABOUT 1290 MI...2075 KM ESE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SSE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pena was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 151.1 West. Pena is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected to occur during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Evans/Blake
Forecast discussion
Central Pacific Hurricane Center · forecast discussion 2 · issued Nov 7, 2:41 AM UTCsource ↗
000 WTPA44 PHFO 070241 TCDCP4 Tropical Storm Pena Discussion Number 2 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP042026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Fri Nov 06 2026 Satellite imagery over the last several hours suggests that while deep convection has weakened some around Pena's core, strong banding persists well away from the cyclone's center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from HFO rated the storm at 2.5/35 kt, but with a Data T of 3.0/45 kt. Objective estimates from UW-CIMSS also range from 37-41 kt. Based on Pena's satellite presentation, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/10 kt. Pena is expected to keep moving westward over the next several days as it is steered by a high pressure ridge centered over the central Pacific. Track guidance generally exhibits good agreement on Pena's motion through most of the forecast period, depicting a turn to the west-northwest by the middle of next week as the ridge slightly weakens. The latest NHC track forecast generally follows a blend of HCCA and GDMI guidance, reflecting a slight poleward shift in the long-range track compared to the previous advisory. Gradual intensification is forecast for Pena as its surrounding environment is characterized by low vertical wind shear, anomalously warm SSTs, and ample mid-level moisture. In fact, SHIPS guidance from the GFS suggests a 48 percent chance of rapid intensification in 24 hours, reflecting the storm's favorable environment. Intensity guidance on average shows a upward trend compared to the previous advisory, so the latest NHC intensity forecast was adjusted higher to better depict this guidance over the forecast period. In a couple of days, the vertical wind shear forecasts are more uncertain, with some shear potentially undercutting the outflow layer. Thus the forecast is leveled off, with model solutions ranging from upper-end tropical storm to category 2 hurricane. Confidence is increasing that the cyclone will undergo, at the very least, gradual strengthening during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 11.2N 151.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 11.4N 152.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 11.3N 154.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 11.3N 156.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 11.3N 158.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 11.3N 160.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 11.4N 161.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 11.7N 165.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 12.8N 171.9W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Evans/Blake
