Fay, advisory 9
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 9
Public advisory
National Hurricane Center · public advisory 9 · issued Sep 21, 2:51 PM UTCsource ↗
000 WTNT31 KNHC 211451 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...FAY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.3N 32.0W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 32.0 West. Fay is moving toward the south near 5 mph (7 km/h). A gradual turn toward the southwest and west-southwest is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Fay could degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Forecast discussion
National Hurricane Center · forecast discussion 9 · issued Sep 21, 2:52 PM UTCsource ↗
000 WTNT41 KNHC 211452 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 Fay continues to be affected by strong west-northwesterly vertical wind shear. Practically all of the deep convection is confined to a band of showers and thunderstorms located well to the east of the well-defined low-level center. Using a blend of subjective and objective intensity estimates, the advisory intensity is reduced to 45 kt. Global model simulations show a strong upper-level trough shifting eastward from Fay during the next day or two. This evolution would allow for some relaxation of the shear, and this is also indicated by the Decay SHIPS model. However, the model guidance also indicates that the system is likely to encounter a drier low- to mid-level air mass, which should inhibit re-strengthening. Simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF output shows Fay's deep convection mostly dissipated during the next few days. Therefore the official forecast, like the previous one, shows the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low by 48 hours. Fay is now moving southward at around 4 kt, along the eastern side of a mid-level high. Over the next several days, the cyclone is expected turn southwestward to west-southwestward and move around the southeastern and southern periphery of the high. This should keep the system over the open Atlantic through dissipation later in the week. Not much change has been made to the previous NHC track forecast, which remains in good agreement with the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and corrected model consensus, HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 33.3N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 32.6N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 31.6N 33.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 30.7N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 30.0N 37.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/0000Z 29.4N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1200Z 29.3N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1200Z 29.3N 43.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
