Fay, advisory 10
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 10
Public advisory
National Hurricane Center · public advisory 10 · issued Sep 21, 8:34 PM UTCsource ↗
000 WTNT31 KNHC 212034 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...FAY GRADUALLY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.1N 32.2W ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 210 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 32.2 West. Fay is moving toward the south-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and a gradual turn toward the southwest and west is expected during the next few days Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Fay is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by late Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Forecast discussion
National Hurricane Center · forecast discussion 10 · issued Sep 21, 8:36 PM UTCsource ↗
000 WTNT41 KNHC 212036 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 Strong west-northwesterly vertical wind shear has been affecting Fay today, with most or all deep convection being displaced well east of the well-defined low-level center. Scatterometer data suggest that the peak winds have diminished to near 40 kt, which will be the advisory intensity estimate. Global model forecasts show that a strong upper-level trough will shift eastward away from Fay during the next day or so. This will likely lessen the wind shear over the system by late tomorrow. However, the Decay-SHIPS guidance indicates that the cyclone should be ingesting drier air during the next few days. This is consistent with simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF global model, which shows the system losing most of its associated deep convection during the next 48 hours or so. Therefore the NHC forecast shows Fay becoming a post-tropical remnant low by tomorrow night, and this event could occur even sooner than that. Fay is moving slowly south-southwestward along the eastern side of a mid-level high. The cyclone is expected to turn southwestward and then westward around the southern portion of the high until dissipation. The official track forecast is similar to the previous few NHC forecasts. This is also in good agreement with the latest GFS prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 33.1N 32.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 32.4N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 31.3N 34.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z 29.9N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/0600Z 29.6N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1800Z 29.5N 41.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1800Z 29.6N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
