Fay, advisory 34
Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 34
Public advisory
National Hurricane Center · public advisory 34 · issued Sep 28, 2:39 PM UTCsource ↗
000 WTNT31 KNHC 281439 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Mon Sep 28 2026 ...FAY MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 44.6W ABOUT 1265 MI...2040 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 210 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 44.6 West. The depression is moving toward the south-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn to the southwest and then to the west-southwest, along with an increase in forward motion, is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, and Fay is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Forecast discussion
National Hurricane Center · forecast discussion 34 · issued Sep 28, 2:39 PM UTCsource ↗
000 WTNT41 KNHC 281439 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Mon Sep 28 2026 Fay continues to produce bursts of deep convection, mainly to the south of the low-level center. A recent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicated the highest reliable satellite-derived surface winds were around 25-30 kt, which is in good agreement with the TAFB subjective Dvorak intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt. Although some of the UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates are higher, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt, leaning toward the scatterometer data. The initial motion is estimated to be south-southwestward, or 210/8 kt. Fay should continue to move south-southwestward to southwestward along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge located over the central Atlantic. Track guidance is in fairly good agreement on this general motion, with the primary differences being in the along-track spread. The latest NHC track forecast is slightly faster than the previous advisory and lies near the HCCA corrected-consensus aid. Fay has maintained persistent convection near the low-level center within a favorable environment over warm sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and abundant mid-level moisture. It is possible Fay could regain tropical storm strength. However, this favorable environment is expected to be short-lived. Global models continue to show the system will struggle to produce deep convection in a day or so as it encounters a more stable air mass and convergence aloft. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, showing the system dissipating late Tuesday and degenerating into a surface trough shortly thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 27.1N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 26.0N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 24.6N 47.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 23.4N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1200Z 23.1N 50.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
