Fay, advisory 33
Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 33
Public advisory
National Hurricane Center · public advisory 33 · issued Sep 28, 8:46 AM UTCsource ↗
000 WTNT31 KNHC 280846 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Mon Sep 28 2026 ...FAY PERSISTS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 44.1W ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 210 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 44.1 West. The depression is moving toward the south-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the southwest and then to the west-southwest, along with an increase in forward motion, is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Evans/Hagen/Mahoney
Forecast discussion
National Hurricane Center · forecast discussion 33 · issued Sep 28, 8:48 AM UTCsource ↗
000 WTNT41 KNHC 280848 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Mon Sep 28 2026 Fay's convection has persisted a bit longer overnight than previously seen the last couple of days. Dvorak intensity estimates appear to have picked up on this, with TAFB providing a subjective estimate of T2.0/30 kt. Based primarily on Fay's satellite presentation since the last advisory, the initial intensity was raised slightly to 30 kt, but Fay remains a tropical depression. The forecast increase in forward speed, as well as a turn to the southwest, is becoming more evident on satellite imagery. For this advisory, the initial motion is set at 210/6 kt. Track guidance remains in fairly good agreement on Fay tracking to the southwest and then west-southwest as it is steered by the prevailing easterlies along the southern periphery of the Atlantic subtropical high. The greatest uncertainty across the guidance is the forward speed of the depression. The latest track forecast shows a faster forward speed over the next 48 h, in close agreement with the HCCA guidance. So long as organized deep convection persists and scatterometry data depicts a closed low, Fay will remain a tropical depression. Even as SHIPS guidance shows Fay entering a favorable environment in terms of SSTs, vertical wind shear, and mid-level moisture, the current forecast thinking is that Fay's presence under mid- to upper-level ridging will drive convergence aloft and weaken its circulation to the point of dissipation. Global models agree on this and have Fay ultimately dissipating during the day Wednesday, with the exception of the UKMET, which holds onto the cyclone through the end of the week. The latest intensity forecast shows Fay becoming post-tropical late Tuesday, with dissipation a day or two later. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 27.9N 44.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 27.0N 44.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 25.5N 46.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 24.4N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0600Z 23.2N 49.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Evans/Hagen/Mahoney
