Fay, advisory 25
Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 25
Public advisory
National Hurricane Center · public advisory 25 · issued Sep 26, 8:38 AM UTCsource ↗
000 WTNT31 KNHC 260838 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...FAY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONCE AGAIN... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 43.7W ABOUT 1115 MI...1790 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 43.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn to the south-southwest is expected to occur, followed by an increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast over the next several days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Evans/Berg
Forecast discussion
National Hurricane Center · forecast discussion 25 · issued Sep 26, 8:41 AM UTCsource ↗
000 WTNT41 KNHC 260841 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Sat Sep 26 2026 As anticipated, Fay's convection is redeveloping early this morning, even as the storm's overall organization degrades. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity analysis from TAFB rated Fay at 2.0/30 kt, while objective analysis from UW-CIMSS rated the intensity between 31 and 38 kt. With the latest scatterometry pass from around 0000 UTC yielding a maximum wind speed of about 24 kt, and convection still weaker than 24 hours prior, the initial intensity was set at 30 kt, and Fay has been downgraded to a tropical depression. Storm motion remains slow, at 250/3 kt. Fay is beginning to turn to the south-southwest as it enters the southern flank of the subtropical Atlantic high. Track guidance then generally depicts Fay being picked up by the prevailing easterlies by early next week. Confidence in the track forecast has increased over the last several cycles as models begin to better converge on a solution, but still exhibit a fair amount of disparity in depicting when Fay will turn to the west. The latest NHC track forecast has shifted slightly to the left, reflecting a blend of the previous forecast and HCCA, and overall suggests a sooner turn to the southwest and then west compared to the previous advisory. Confidence in Fay's intensity forecast remains low. While the system remains over favorable SSTs, vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air suggest an overall hostile environment. Still, Fay's convection has re-initiated multiple times over the last several days, just when it appears that the storm is on its last legs. Warm SSTs may favor this continued, pulsating nature of Fay's convection, but the current forecast thinking is that the vertical wind shear currently degrading Fay will make these convective bursts increasingly difficult to sustain. The latest NHC intensity forecast keeps Fay below tropical storm strength, however yet another restrengthening cycle cannot be ruled out. Skilled guidance seems to favor an overall upward trend in intensity just beyond 24 h, but with Fay currently lacking organization, the latest intensity forecast keeps the system at relatively steady strength, before dissipation is expected by the middle of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 29.7N 43.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 29.7N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 29.2N 44.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 28.4N 44.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 27.3N 44.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 26.2N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 24.6N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 23.2N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Evans/Berg
