Fay, advisory 24
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 24
Public advisory
National Hurricane Center · public advisory 24 · issued Sep 26, 2:58 AM UTCsource ↗
000 WTNT31 KNHC 260258 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...FAY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 43.4W ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 43.4 West. Fay is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A gradual turn to the south-southwest is expected to occur, along with an increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h), with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Evans/Hagen
Forecast discussion
National Hurricane Center · forecast discussion 24 · issued Sep 26, 2:59 AM UTCsource ↗
000 WTNT41 KNHC 260259 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 26 2026 Fay's structure is falling apart once again. Satellite imagery shows that most of the deep convection has disappeared over the past several hours. Recent ASCAT data returned a maximum wind retrieval of just 24 kt, but given the low bias of the ASCAT due to its resolution, and the fact that all of the recent subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates still support tropical storm intensity, the initial intensity is set at a possibly generous 35 kt. The initial motion remains slow, at 260/3 kt. Steering winds are expected to remain light as Fay sits within the Atlantic subtropical high, with a turn to the south-southwest expected within the next 24 h as the storm meanders into the southern flank of the high. Track forecast models are generally in good agreement for the first 48 h, before exhibiting larger spread thereafter as Fay moves away from the influence of the subtropical high. Skilled models suggest that Fay could be picked up by the prevailing easterlies by early next week, but the latest forecast calls for Fay to dissipate by then. Fay has been difficult to forecast, as global models continue to depict recurring cycles of diurnal convection, which have allowed Fay to gain a second wind, so to speak, even as environmental conditions become increasingly hostile. This is likely due to SSTs remaining favorable for the storm, even as SHIPS guidance suggest that mid-level moisture is lacking and vertical wind shear remains moderate. Intensity guidance also depicts another re-strengthening of Fay just beyond 48 h, likely due to vertical wind shear relenting. The current thinking behind the forecast, however, is that with Fay weak enough as it is, the current environment will continue to degrade its structure and inhibit its ability to restrengthen. As a result, the latest intensity forecast is relatively conservative, holding Fay's strength somewhat steady as it undergoes these cycles of nocturnal convection, before the storm is expected to open up into a trough by Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 29.9N 43.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 30.0N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 29.9N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 29.2N 43.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 28.3N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/1200Z 27.2N 44.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0000Z 25.4N 44.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Evans/Hagen
