Fay, advisory 13
Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 13
Public advisory
National Hurricane Center · public advisory 13 · issued Sep 22, 2:46 PM UTCsource ↗
000 WTNT31 KNHC 221446 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 ...FAY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.1N 34.6W ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 34.6 West. The depression is moving toward the southwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-southwest and then west is expected through midweek. Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Fay is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Forecast discussion
National Hurricane Center · forecast discussion 13 · issued Sep 22, 2:47 PM UTCsource ↗
000 WTNT41 KNHC 221447 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 Fay is currently comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with no convection. A recent ASCAT-B overpass indicates that the maximum winds are now near 30 kt, and based on this the cyclone is downgraded to a tropical depression. Unless convection comes back in the next several hours, Fay should degenerate into a remnant low later today. The system is moving southwestward, or 230/9 kt, as it rounds the eastern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge to its west. A turn toward the west-southwest and then the west is expected over the next day or two as the ridge strengthens and builds eastward to the north of Fay. Due to a slight southward shift in the guidance envelope, the new track forecast is a little south of the previous forecast. Currently, Fay is in an environment of moderate northwesterly shear and dry air entrainment. While the dynamical models forecast the shear to subside during the next 24 h, they also forecast strong upper-level convergence over the system and continued dry air entrainment. Based on this and the model simulated satellite imagery, it appears unlikely that Fay will re-develop persistent organized convection after the shear decreases. Thus, the new intensity forecast follows the old forecast in showing a gradual weakening of the remnant low until dissipation near 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 31.1N 34.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 30.5N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1200Z 29.9N 37.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0000Z 29.5N 39.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z 29.4N 41.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0000Z 29.5N 43.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z 29.5N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z 30.0N 46.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
