Fay, advisory 12
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 12
Public advisory
National Hurricane Center · public advisory 12 · issued Sep 22, 8:40 AM UTCsource ↗
000 WTNT31 KNHC 220840 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 ...FAY FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 33.7W ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 33.7 West. Fay is moving toward the southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-southwest and then west is expected through midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Fay is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Forecast discussion
National Hurricane Center · forecast discussion 12 · issued Sep 22, 8:41 AM UTCsource ↗
000 WTNT41 KNHC 220841 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 Deep convection associated with Fay has completely dissipated, leaving the low-level center fully exposed on satellite imagery. Given the lack of organized deep convection over the past several hours, Fay's remaining time as a tropical cyclone is limited unless convection redevelops soon. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates currently range from 25 to 44 kt. Based on a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity is maintained at 35 kt for this advisory. The system is moving southwestward, or 230/8 kt, as it rounds the eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge to its west. A turn toward the west-southwest and then the west is expected over the next day or two, as the ridge strengthens. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous nudged slightly towards the right, towards the GDMI and HCCA aids. A combination of moderate wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause Fay to gradually spin down and weaken. Although shear may relax somewhat in a few days, as the system moves over slightly warmer sea surface temperatures, model-simulated satellite imagery suggests that any returning convection will occur only in intermittent bursts. Based on current trends and model guidance, the NHC intensity forecast calls for Fay to gradually weaken, and become a post-tropical remnant low later today and dissipate into an open trough by the end of the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 31.8N 33.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 31.2N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1800Z 29.9N 38.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z 29.7N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/1800Z 29.8N 42.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z 29.9N 43.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z 30.1N 45.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
