Twenty-Two-E, advisory 1
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Advisory Number 1
Public advisory
National Hurricane Center · public advisory 1 · issued Oct 21, 2:36 PM UTCsource ↗
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 211436 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 900 AM CST Wed Oct 21 2026 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.5N 99.3W ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E was located near latitude 9.5 North, longitude 99.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general slow forward motion with a turn towards the northwest then north-northwest is expected the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is expected, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Forecast discussion
National Hurricane Center · forecast discussion 1 · issued Oct 21, 2:37 PM UTCsource ↗
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 211437 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 900 AM CST Wed Oct 21 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance located south of southern Mexico (EP94) has continued to become better organized this morning. Deep convection has increased, and showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated within curved banding features. A subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB was T2.0/ 30 kt. Visible satellite shows that the low-level circulation center is now well-defined, and advisories are therefore being initiated on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is estimated at 265/6 kt. A generally slow forward motion is expected with a turn towards the northwest and then north-northwest as the cyclone is steered along the southern and western periphery of a mid-level ridge located over Mexico. The NHC track forecast leans towards the GDMI and HCCA solutions and is on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. The GFS and some of the hurricane regional models continue to move the system more southwestward over the next 12 hours or so and are on the western portion of the track suite. Environmental conditions are highly conducive for rapid intensification. The cyclone is located over very warm waters in the eastern Pacific within an environment of low vertical wind shear, abundant mid-level moisture, and divergence aloft. Rapid intensification guidance is also well above climatological mean, particularly in the 12-60 h period. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS RI probabilities for a 55-kt increase in 48 hours are 73 and 83 percent, respectively. Thus, rapid intensification is explicitly forecast during that time. By 72 hours, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase, and mid-level dry air could begin to entrain into the circulation. As a result, a weakening trend is shown later in the forecast period. The official NHC intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance, although the Google DeepMind does show a higher peak intensity. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 9.5N 99.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 9.4N 100.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 9.7N 101.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 10.2N 102.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 10.7N 102.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 11.5N 103.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 12.5N 103.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 14.2N 104.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 15.4N 105.2W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly
