Trudy, advisory 3

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 140253
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Trudy Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026
900 PM CST Tue Oct 13 2026
 
...TRUDY FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE
TOMORROW...
...RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 97.0W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in southwestern and west-central Mexico should monitor
the progress of Trudy, and watches will likely be required tomorrow
for these areas.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Trudy was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 97.0 West. Trudy is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion between
west-northwest and northwest should continue through Wednesday
night. A turn toward the north-northwest and a decrease in forward
speed is expected on Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid intensification is forecast during the next few days, and the
cyclone is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday night and a
major hurricane by Friday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Trudy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages.

SURF: Swells generated by Trudy are expected to begin affecting
portions of the coast of southern Mexico late this week. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Mahoney
 

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 140254
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Trudy Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026
900 PM CST Tue Oct 13 2026
 
Tropical Storm Trudy has a fairly large circulation with several
outer banding features propagating outward in a manner consistent
with a diurnal pulse. Despite the large apparent size, which dwarfs
nearby Hurricane Simon, the core of Trudy is analyzed to be somewhat
compact with tropical-storm-force winds limited to the northern
semicircle of the circulation and no farther than 60 n mi from the
center. It was a bit difficult to analyze the initial center
position for this advisory. Late arriving Oceansat-3 scatterometer
data and AMSR3 microwave imagery suggest that the center of Trudy
may have been somewhat north of the best track position earlier
today. The objective and subjective satellite fixes also range by
several degrees. The initial position blends these available data
with the last few visible satellite images of the day and maintains
continuity with the previous forecast track. Trudy's intensity was a
much easier analysis, and is increased to 40 kt for this advisory,
which blends the objective satellite intensity estimates from
UW-CIMSS, the subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB, and recent
short-term trends in the satellite presentation of the system.
 
The track forecast is difficult and uncertain, with higher than 
normal spread in the guidance from 72 h onward. The initial motion 
of Trudy is northwestward (320/9 kt), and a general northwestward to 
west-northwestward motion is forecast through 72 hr as the cyclone 
is steered by a mid-level ridge over the southern United States. As 
previously stated, the track forecast is more uncertain than usual 
by 72 h as Trudy arrives into a region with weak steering flow 
between the retreating mid-level ridge and an approaching trough 
over the western United States. The deterministic global models are 
significantly slower than the HFIP Corrected Consensus Aid (HCCA), 
Google DeepMind (GDMI), the European Centre's AIFS, and the AI-GFS. 
The new track forecast closely follows HCCA and GDMI, which have 
been the best-performing track forecast aids this season. Compared 
to the previous forecast, the new NHC track is faster and nudged 
east of the previous one, especially at and beyond 72 h. This brings 
Trudy inland over western Mexico later this weekend with the cyclone 
emerging in the southern Gulf of California by early next week. If 
Trudy tracks farther inland over western Mexico, the circulation may 
not survive and rapidly dissipate inland. Regardless of the exact 
track, Trudy is expected to approach the coast of Mexico as a major 
hurricane later this week.
 
The center of Trudy appears nestled under a small and incipient
central dense overcast. While a short-term trend on satellite, this
change in organization of a small inner core combined with extremely
favorable environmental conditions supports an aggressive intensity
forecast that explicitly depicts rapid intensification and makes
Trudy a hurricane within 24 h. This is also supported by some of the
statistical rapid intensity guidance. The new intensity forecast is
adjusted slightly above the previous one, in agreement with GDMI and
HCCA, our best performing intensity guidance this season. GDMI,
HCCA, and the NHC forecast are on the higher end of the intensity
guidance, though this appears the most likely solution based on the
official track forecast. The hurricane regional models, which can
be more skillful for intensity than the coarser global models, use
the GFS for initialization and boundary conditions. For this cycle,
the GFS track is unrealistic, and the hurricane regional models
appear to succumb to this and provide an outlier (weaker) outcome.
At 120 h, the intensity forecast shows Trudy remaining a hurricane
after exiting Mexico, though this intensity will be highly
sensitive to the amount of land interaction.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the
coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico late this week and
into the weekend. There is an increasing risk of wind, rain, and
storm surge impacts, and watches could be required for a portion of 
these areas on Wednesday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 11.2N  97.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 11.8N  98.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 12.6N 100.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 13.5N 100.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 14.3N 101.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  16/1200Z 15.2N 101.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 16.3N 102.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 19.0N 104.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 21.0N 106.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Mahoney