Simon, advisory 6

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 082032
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Simon Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026
300 PM CST Thu Oct 08 2026
 
...SIMON ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL 
MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 103.9W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Punta
San Telmo to Playa Perula and a Tropical Storm Watch from Lazaro
Cardenas to Punta San Telmo.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Playa Perula to Punta Mita
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Additional watches or warnings could be required for portions of the
coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico tonight or Friday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 
issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Simon was 
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 103.9 West. Simon is 
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the northwest 
is expected by early Friday, followed by a northward motion Friday 
night. On the forecast track, the core of Simon is expected to 
approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico on 
Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Simon is 
expected to become a hurricane tonight and a very dangerous category 
4 hurricane before it reaches the coast of Mexico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area
Saturday afternoon or evening, with tropical storm conditions
expected Saturday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible within
the hurricane watch area by Saturday night, with tropical storm
conditions beginning on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning Friday.
 
RAINFALL:  Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 15
inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum
totals between 15 and 25 inches possible across portions of
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco through Sunday. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
of steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is possible along the 
immediate coast near and to the east of where the center makes 
landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and 
destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 082032
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Simon Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026
300 PM CST Thu Oct 08 2026
 
Simon is almost a hurricane. The storm continues to have a very 
compact inner core with some signs of an eye becoming apparent in 
satellite images. There are also numerous spiral bands beyond the 
inner core region, with the outermost band in the far northeast 
quadrant still affecting portions of southwestern Mexico. The latest 
satellite intensity estimates have increased a little from earlier 
and now range from about 50 to 65 kt. Based on that data, the 
initial intensity is nudged up to 60 kt. A 17Z ASCAT-C pass was used 
to adjust the initial wind radii.
 
The tropical storm is moving slowly westward at about 5 kt, steered 
by a weak mid-level ridge to its north. A turn to the northwest is 
expected tonight or early Friday, followed by a northward motion 
later that day when the ridge weakens and shifts eastward, in 
response to an approaching mid- to upper-level trough. Although the 
models generally agree on the large-scale steering pattern 
evolution, there are very important differences in where and when 
the system makes that turn. There has been a notable shift to the 
east this cycle, and given the westward bias often seen in the 
models for this region, the NHC track forecast has been again nudged 
eastward. It should be noted that the best-performing models of the 
year so far are east of the official forecast, and additional 
adjustments might be needed if this trend continues. This forecast 
brings the core of the system inland over southwestern and 
west-central Mexico Saturday afternoon or Saturday night.
 
Simon is in near ideal environmental conditions of low wind shear,
high moisture, and over very warm waters. The SHIPS model shows more
than a 70 percent chance that the system will rapidly intensify over
the next 24 hours. In fact, the storm's compact inner core structure
makes it even more likely that it will capitalize on the favorable
conditions. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast continues to call
for rapid strengthening into a very dangerous category 4 hurricane
before Simon reaches the coast of west-central Mexico. This forecast
lies near the high end of the guidance, in best agreement with the
HCCA model.
 
Based on the new forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a 
Hurricane Warning for a portion of the coast of southwestern and 
west-central Mexico.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Simon is expected to strengthen to a hurricane by tonight and 
approach the west-central coast of Mexico as a major hurricane on 
Saturday.

2. Life-threatening wind and storm surge impacts are expected along 
a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a Hurricane 
Warning is now in effect from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula. 
Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by 
late Friday.

3. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of 
southwestern Mexico through this weekend. This rainfall may produce 
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of 
steep terrain.

4. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central 
coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to 
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please 
consult products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 15.7N 103.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 16.1N 104.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 16.8N 104.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 17.7N 105.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 18.8N 104.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 19.9N 104.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 72H  11/1800Z 21.1N 104.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  12/1800Z 23.2N 105.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi