Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number 8

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 290248
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
900 PM CST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
...RACHEL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF 
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 102.9W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of southwestern Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of southwestern Mexico north of Playa Perula to Cabo
Corrientes
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was 
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 102.9 West. Rachel is 
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual 
turn toward the northwest with a slower forward speed is expected 
during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of 
Rachel is predicted to move parallel to, but stay offshore of, the 
coast of southwestern Mexico.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and 
Rachel is forecast to become a hurricane during the next day or so.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area by
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by
Tuesday night or Wednesday.
 
RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacn and Colima.
This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in
areas of steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and
spread northward through midweek. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 290250
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
900 PM CST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
The satellite-observed structure of Rachel has improved this 
evening. While the storm is still clearly feeling the effects of 
northerly shear, proxy-visible and infrared satellite images show 
the low-level center is tucked underneath the northern side of the 
cold dense overcast. TAFB also noted an improvement in the satellite 
structure of Rachel with their latest T3.0 Dvorak classification, 
and the various UW-CIMSS objective estimates generally range from 
44-54 kt. Based on a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity 
is set at 50 kt.

Rachel is moving west-northwestward (300/9 kt) along the southwest 
side of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. A deep-layer trough 
over the southwestern United States is expected to move eastward 
during the next couple of days, which should erode the ridge and 
cause Rachel to turn northwestward at a slower forward speed within 
weaker steering currents through midweek. By late week, the trough 
is forecast to lift out and the ridge should become reestablished to 
the north, with Rachel expected to resume a west-northwestward 
motion. Overall, the track model guidance trended slightly faster 
this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted to fall between 
the latest simple (TVCN) and corrected (HCCA) consensus aids.
 
In general, the models agree that Rachel should intensify over very 
warm SSTs (29-30 deg C) with abundant mid-level moisture and a 
divergent upper-level environment. Moderate vertical wind shear 
appears to be the only limiting factor, though it is forecast to 
gradually decrease through midweek. Since the tropical storm is 
sheared and currently lacks an inner core, only gradual 
strengthening is forecast tonight. Thereafter, there is fairly large 
spread in the intensity guidance, with some models including Google 
DeepMind, COAMPS-TC, and HCCA showing Rachel reaching major 
hurricane status. The updated NHC intensity forecast is not as 
aggressive as these models but has been raised from the previous 
prediction, slightly higher than the simple consensus (IVCN) but 
still well below the latest HCCA and GDMI aids. The NHC forecast 
levels off in the 60-120 h time frame based on mixed signals in the 
guidance, perhaps a result of Rachel encountering some cooler waters 
left behind in the wake of Hurricane Polo.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Although the core of Rachel is forecast to remain offshore of 
Mexico, tropical-storm-force winds are expected along a portion of 
the coast of southwestern Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area 
on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch 
area Tuesday night or on Wednesday.
 
2. Outer bands from Rachel will bring locally heavy rainfall to 
portions of coastal southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall 
may produce areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of 
steep terrain.
 
3. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during
the next several days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 14.5N 102.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 15.2N 104.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 16.5N 105.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 17.9N 107.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 18.9N 107.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  01/1200Z 19.5N 108.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 19.9N 109.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 20.4N 110.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  04/0000Z 20.9N 111.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart