Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number 7

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 282039
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
300 PM CST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
...RACHEL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 102.1W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 360 MI...585 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of southwestern Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of southwestern Mexico north of Playa Perula to Cabo
Corrientes
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 102.1 West. Rachel is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A west- 
northwestward to northwestward motion is expected for the next few 
days.  On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to 
move parallel to, but stay offshore of, the coast of southwestern 
Mexico.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and 
Rachel is forecast to become a hurricane by mid-week.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area by Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the Tropical Storm Watch area by Tuesday night or Wednesday.
 
RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 
inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across coastal 
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacn and Colima. 
This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in 
areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall 
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Rachel will begin affecting portions of
southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 282040
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
300 PM CST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
Satellite imagery this afternoon indicates that Rachel remains a
sheared tropical cyclone with the low-level center located near the
northern edge of the main convective mass. This is consistent with
shear analyses showing 20-25 kt of northeasterly shear. The various 
satellite intensity estimates are now generally clustered near 45 
kt, and that will be the initial intensity for this advisory.
 
The initial motion is now faster toward the west-northwest or  300/9 
kt.  For the next 60 h or so, Rachel is forecast to move generally 
west-northwestward or northwestward on the southwest side of a 
mid-level ridge over Mexico.  After that, the ridge weakens and 
shifts southeastward in response to a mid-latitude trough moving 
across the southern United States. This evolution should result in 
Rachel being left in an area of weaker steering currents causing a 
slower west-northwestward to northwestward motion. The track 
guidance is generally in good agreement on this scenario and keeps 
the center well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. The 
new track forecast is similar to the previous forecast from 12-24 h 
and after 72h. However, it has been shifted a little northeastward 
from 36-72 h to lie closer to the HFIP Corrected Consensus and 
Google DeepMind forecasts.

The current northeasterly shear is still forecast to diminish a 
little after 24 h. However, the dynamical models are in good 
agreement that moderate shear is likely to continue through at least 
96 h. Even with the forecast shear, the intensity guidance shows 
gradual strengthening.  The new intensity forecast has minor 
reductions in intensity at 72 and 96 h to better match the guidance, 
but is otherwise unchanged from the previous forecast.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Although the core of Rachel is forecast to remain offshore of
Mexico, tropical storm force winds are expected along a portion of
the coast of southwestern Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area
on Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along a portion
of the coast of southwestern Mexico in the Tropical Storm Watch area
Tuesday night or on Wednesday.
 
2. Outer bands from Rachel will bring locally heavy rainfall to 
portions of coastal southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall 
may produce areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of 
steep terrain.
 
3. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during
the next several days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 14.2N 102.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 14.8N 103.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 15.9N 104.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 17.2N 106.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 18.3N 107.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  01/0600Z 19.0N 108.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 19.5N 108.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 19.9N 109.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 20.4N 110.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven