Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number 6

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 281438
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
900 AM CST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
...RACHEL A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF 
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 101.2W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for 
the coast of southwestern Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Playa 
Perula. The government of Mexico has also issued a Tropical Storm 
Watch for the coast of southwestern Mexico north of Playa Perula to 
Cabo Corrientes.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of southwestern Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of southwestern Mexico north of Playa Perula to Cabo 
Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 101.2 West. Rachel is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A continued 
west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed are expected 
for the next few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Rachel 
is expected to move parallel to, but stay offshore of, the coast of 
southwestern Mexico.
 
Maximum sustained winds are now near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days,
and Rachel is forecast to become a hurricane by mid-week.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm 
Warning area by Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible 
within the Tropical Storm Watch area by Tuesday night or Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 
inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across coastal 
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacn and Colima. 
This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in 
areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall 
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Rachel will begin affecting portions of
southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 281439
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
900 AM CST Mon Sep 28 2026

Satellite imagery this morning indicates that Rachel remains a 
sheared tropical cyclone with the low-level center located near the 
northern edge of the main convective mass. This is consistent with 
shear analyses showing about 20 kt of northeasterly shear. The 
various satellite intensity estimates are in the 35-50 kt and they 
have nudged upward since the last advisory. The initial intensity 
is thus nudged upward to 45 kt.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 300/7 kt.  For the next 
2-3 days, Rachel is forecast to move generally west- northwestward 
on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge over Mexico.  After that, 
the ridge weakens and shifts southeastward in response to a 
mid-latitude trough moving across the southern United States. This 
evolution should result in Rachel being left in an area of weaker 
steering currents and a slower west-northwestward to northwestward 
motion. There is little change in the track guidance since the 
previous advisory, and the new forecast track is similar to the 
previous track.

The current northeasterly shear is forecast to diminish a little 
after 24 h. However, the dynamical models are in good agreement that 
moderate shear is likely to continue through at least 96 h. Even 
with the forecast shear, the intensity guidance shows gradual 
strengthening, with the rate of strengthening increasing a little 
after 24 h.  The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous 
forecast and follows the overall trend of the guidance.


Key Messages:
 
1. Although the core of Rachel is forecast to remain offshore of
Mexico, tropical storm force winds are expected along a portion of
the coast of southwestern Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area
on Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along a portion 
of the coast of southwestern Mexico in the Tropical Storm Watch area
Tuesday night or on Wednesday.

2. Outer bands from Rachel will bring locally heavy rainfall to 
portions of coastal southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall 
may produce areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of 
steep terrain.
 
3. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during
the next several days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 13.8N 101.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 14.5N 102.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 15.5N 104.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 16.7N 106.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 17.8N 107.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  01/0000Z 18.7N 108.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 19.3N 108.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 19.8N 109.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  03/1200Z 20.5N 110.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven