000
WTPZ33 KNHC 280245
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026
900 PM CST Sun Sep 27 2026
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 99.8W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 99.8 West. Rachel is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to remain well
offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. However, tropical storm
conditions are possible along the coast of Mexico within the
tropical storm watch area by Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Rachel is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Tuesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will begin affecting portions of
southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.
$$
Forecaster Mahoney
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 280246
TCDEP3
Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026
900 PM CST Sun Sep 27 2026
The last few visible satellite images of the day indicate that
Rachel continues to have a broad center. A recently received
Oceansat-3 scatterometer pass that partially sampled the system a
few hours ago indicated winds to at least 35 kt about 120 n mi west
of the center. Objective satellite intensity estimates range from
35-40 kt and the Dvorak classification from TAFB is T2.5/35 kt.
Based on these data, and the broad structure of the tropical
cyclone, the initial intensity is maintained at 35 kt for this
advisory.
Rachel is moving westward at 280/6 kt. The overall track philosophy
has not changed for this forecast. A deep-layer ridge building over
Mexico is expected to steer the cyclone west-northwestward at a
faster forward speed through mid-week. On Thursday, a weakness in
the ridge, caused by a trough over the southwestern United States,
will cause the cyclone to move more slowly on a similar
northwestward heading. The new track forecast is similar to the
advisory, and blends the Google DeepMind (GDM) and HFIP Corrected
Consensus Aid (HCCA).
The tropical storm continues to endure approximately 20 kt of
northeasterly shear, which is clearly evident on satellite imagery.
Given the broad structure and moderate to high wind shear, gradual
intensification is forecast over the next couple of days. The shear
is expected to subside early next week and intensification is likely
to continue thereafter, with Rachel forecast to become a hurricane
on Tuesday. Rachel could then track over the cool wake from
Hurricane Polo, though recent drifter data captured vertical
profiles that show high ocean heat content (OHC) persists in the
region. The intensity forecast is on the higher end of the guidance
envelope, and blends the GDM and HCCA solutions.
The analyzed and forecast tropical storm force wind radii for Rachel
are larger in this forecast than the previous one. Due to the
proximity of tropical storm force winds to the coast, the government
of Mexico has issue a Tropical Storm Watch from Punta San Telmo to
Playa Perula.
Key Messages:
1. Although the core of Rachel is forecast to remain offshore of
Mexico, tropical storm force winds are possible along a portion of
the coast of southwestern Mexico in the Tropical Storm Watch area
on Tuesday.
2. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during
the next several days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0300Z 12.9N 99.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 13.3N 100.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 14.2N 102.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 15.2N 104.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 16.4N 106.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 17.5N 107.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 18.4N 108.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 19.1N 109.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 20.0N 109.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
$$
Forecaster Mahoney