Hurricane Rachel Advisory Number 13

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 300848
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Rachel Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
200 AM MST Wed Sep 30 2026
 
...RACHEL IS STRENGTHENING...
...COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 107.2W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of southwestern Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of southwestern Mexico north of Playa Perula to Cabo
Corrientes
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rachel was located
near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 107.2 West.  Rachel is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A northwestward
motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next day or
two, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and west later
this week.  On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected
to move away from mainland Mexico and south of the Baja California
Peninsula through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Rapid strengthening is expected today, and 
Rachel could become a major hurricane within the next day or so.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the
warning area this morning.  Tropical storm conditions are possible
in the watch area this morning.
 
RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacn, Colima and
Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect the southwestern coast
of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward along
the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula
through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 300849
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
200 AM MST Wed Sep 30 2026

Rachel is becoming better organized as the north-northeasterly 
vertical wind shear over the system appears to be relaxing.  After 
strengthening into a hurricane around 0600 UTC, the system is 
developing better-defined convective banding features, 
especially over the western quadrant of the circulation.  Deep 
convection remains very intense, with numerous cloud tops as cold 
as -80 deg C.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying a research 
mission into Rachel measured 84-kt winds at the 700 mb flight 
level.  Based on this observation and the increased organization on 
satellite images, the advisory intensity is set to 75 kt.  This is 
somewhat higher than the subjective Dvorak estimate and objective 
estimates from UW-CIMSS.

The forward speed has slowed somewhat and the current motion 
estimate is 315/9 kt.  Rachel continues to move along the 
southwestern side of a mid-tropospheric ridge over northern and 
central Mexico.  The ridge is weakening due to the passage of a 
mid- to upper-level trough/low over the southern United States, and 
this is gradually slowing the steering current.  As the low lifts 
northward during the next couple of days, this should allow another 
ridge to build to the north of the tropical cyclone.  As a result, 
Rachel is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest and pass well 
south of the Baja California Peninsula before continuing westward 
away from land. The official track forecast is similar to, but 
slightly slower than, the previous NHC prediction.  This is a blend 
of the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google 
DeepMind guidance.

Given the decrease in vertical shear, and expected passage over 
very warm waters, significant strengthening seems likely during the 
next 24-36 hours.  The SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) guidance 
indicates a substantially higher than normal probability of RI.  
The official intensity forecast anticipates that Rachel will 
quickly strengthen into a major hurricane by tomorrow if not 
sooner.  This is also similar to the latest HCCA prediction.
Beyond 48 hours, drier low- to mid-level air could cause some 
weakening.  The NHC intensity forecasts is on the high side of the 
model guidance envelope.

The outer wind radii were adjusted based on data from recent 
ASCAT-B/C overpasses.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Although the core of Rachel is forecast to remain offshore of
Mexico, tropical-storm-force winds are expected along a portion of
the coast of southwestern Mexico in the warning area this morning.
 
2. Outer bands from Rachel will bring locally heavy rainfall to 
portions of coastal southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall 
may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in 
areas of steep terrain.
 
3. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico
and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next several
days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 17.6N 107.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 18.4N 108.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 19.2N 109.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 19.5N 109.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 19.7N 110.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  02/1800Z 19.9N 111.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 20.1N 112.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 20.4N 114.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 20.8N 116.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch