Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number 12

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 300234
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 PM MST Tue Sep 29 2026
 
...RACHEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 106.6W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM WSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of southwestern Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of southwestern Mexico north of Playa Perula to Cabo
Corrientes
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the
next 12-24 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 12-24
hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was 
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 106.6 West. Rachel is 
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northwestward 
motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next day or 
two, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and west later 
this week. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is forecast 
to move parallel to, but stay offshore of, the coast of southwestern 
Mexico through Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 
couple of days. Rachel is forecast to become a hurricane later 
tonight or early Wednesday and a major hurricane by Thursday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center. The Manzanillo International Airport (MMZO) 
recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the
warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area later tonight into Wednesday.
 
RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacn, Colima and
Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect the southwestern coast
of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward along
the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula
through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 300235
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 PM MST Tue Sep 29 2026
 
The last available visible satellite images of Rachel showed the 
circulation center was still near the northern edge of the deep 
convective mass. The restricted outflow on the northern side of the 
circulation indicates that northeasterly shear continues to plague 
the storm. Recently, a large burst of deep convection has developed 
closer to the estimated center position, but the latest satellite 
intensity estimates do not support upgrading Rachel to a hurricane 
yet. The initial intensity is held at 60 kt.
 
Rachel is moving northwestward (310/11 kt) on the southwestern side 
of a mid-level ridge over northern and central Mexico. A slower 
forward speed is expected over the next day or so as a cutoff 
upper-level low over the southwestern U.S. moves eastward and 
weakens the ridge. This upper low is forecast to lift northward on 
Thursday and Friday, which should allow another ridge to build in to 
the north of Rachel. As a result, Rachel is forecast to turn toward 
the west-northwest and pass well south of the Baja California 
Peninsula before continuing westward away from land. The updated NHC 
track forecast trended slightly faster than the previous one based 
on the latest TVCN and HCCA aids, along with a minor northward 
adjustment at 48-72 h following the multi-model consensus.
 
The northeasterly shear over Rachel is forecast to gradually weaken
during the next day or two, which should allow for a faster rate of
strengthening given very warm SSTs and a moist, divergent
upper-level environment. The latest DTOPS guidance shows about a 50
percent chance of a 45-kt increase in 36 h, and the NHC intensity
forecast remains aggressive on the higher side of the guidance
envelope with HCCA, HAFS-A, and the COAMPS-TC models. Beyond 48 h,
Rachel appears likely to track near or over the cool wake left
behind by Polo while encountering a drier mid-level environment.
Thus, some weakening is anticipated during the latter half of the
forecast period, with the NHC forecast falling in between HCCA and
IVCN during this time.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Although the core of Rachel is forecast to remain offshore of
Mexico, tropical-storm-force winds are expected along a portion of
the coast of southwestern Mexico in the warning area tonight.
 
2. Outer bands from Rachel will bring locally heavy rainfall to
portions of coastal southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in
areas of steep terrain.
 
3. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico
and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next several
days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 17.0N 106.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 18.0N 107.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 18.9N 108.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 19.5N 109.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 19.8N 110.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  02/1200Z 20.0N 111.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 20.2N 112.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 20.4N 114.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 20.5N 116.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart