Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number 10

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 291450
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
900 AM CST Tue Sep 29 2026
 
...RACHEL SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 105.0W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of southwestern Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of southwestern Mexico north of Playa Perula to Cabo
Corrientes
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was
located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 105.0 West. Rachel is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general
northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is
predicted to move parallel to, but stay offshore of, the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, 
and Rachel is forecast to become a hurricane later today. 
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area 
later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in 
the watch area by tonight or Wednesday.
 
RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 
inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across coastal 
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacn, Colima and 
Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and 
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and
spread northward through the end of the week. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Adams
 

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 291452
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
900 AM CST Tue Sep 29 2026
 
Rachel is dealing with around 20 kt of northeasterly wind shear this 
morning, with the estimated center position located along the far 
northern edge of the central dense overcast. However, a burst of 
deep convection, with cloud top temperatures of around -90 C, along 
with strong upper-level outflow suggests that the system is slowly 
intensifying. The latest TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate was 3.5/55 
kt, while recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range 
from 43-55 kt. Given the deepening convection and the slight 
increase in intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set at 55 
kt for this advisory. 
 
The strong tropical storm is moving toward the west-northwest around 
11 kt, steered by a strong mid-level ridge centered over the 
south-central United States. A turn toward the northwest is expected 
later today as high pressure builds over eastern Mexico, followed by 
a gradual decrease in forward speed as Rachel moves into a region 
with weaker steering flow. By late week, building high pressure to 
the northwest of the cyclone should induce a gradual turn back 
toward the west-northwest and then west, accompanied by a slight 
increase in forward speed. The updated forecast track is very 
similar to the previous advisory, remaining near the middle of the 
track forecast guidance envelope through 48 h and near the northern 
end of the guidance thereafter. 
 
Decreasing wind shear, sufficiently warm sea surface temperatures 
and favorable upper-level divergence are expected to support 
strengthening over the next couple of days, and Rachel is forecast 
to become a hurricane later today. However, Rachel could briefly 
move over slightly cooler waters left in the wake of Hurricane Polo 
tonight into early Wednesday, which may temporarily limit the rate 
of intensification. Thereafter, warmer waters should support 
additional strengthening through late this week. The latest NHC 
intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the guidance envelope, 
although it remains slightly below the HCCA solution. 
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Although the core of Rachel is forecast to remain offshore of 
Mexico, tropical-storm-force winds are expected along a portion of 
the coast of southwestern Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area 
today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the 
watch area tonight or on Wednesday.
 
2. Outer bands from Rachel will bring locally heavy rainfall to
portions of coastal southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall
may produce areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in regions
of steep terrain.
 
3. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during
the next several days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 15.3N 105.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 16.5N 106.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 17.9N 107.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 19.0N 108.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 19.7N 109.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  02/0000Z 20.1N 110.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 20.4N 110.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 20.8N 112.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 21.1N 114.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Adams