Polo, advisory 9

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 222042
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
300 PM CST Tue Sep 22 2026
 
...POLO EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5
HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 101.5W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the southwestern Mexico coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system as additional
watches and warnings could be necessary tonight.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Polo was located by a
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 14.6 North, longitude
101.5 West.  Polo is nearly stationary, but a slow northwestward
motion is expected tonight followed by a generally
west-northwestward motion over the next couple of days.  On the
forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of
southwestern Mexico through the middle of this week, although it is
forecast to remain offshore.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
tonight, with fluctuations in strength possible Wednesday and
Wednesday night.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
 
The minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 892 mb (26.34 inches). 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the coast of Mexico by early Wednesday.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area along the coast of
Mexico by Thursday.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacn through
Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4
inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and
Jalisco through Thursday.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 222047
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
300 PM CST Tue Sep 22 2026
 
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Hurricane Polo this
afternoon and found that it had strengthened even more since this
morning.  The highest 700 mb flight-level winds were 168 kt, which
corresponds to 151 kt at the surface using a standard reduction
factor.  However, the aircraft also found that the central pressure
had dropped to an extremely low value of about 892 mb. This would
typically support even higher winds than 151 kt, so the advisory
intensity is set conservatively to 155 kt.  The system continues to
look very impressive on satellite imagery with very deep convection
and well-defined upper-level outflow.  The radial profile of the
aircraft wind data show hints of a secondary wind maximum so a
concentric eyewall may be developing.
 
Aircraft and satellite center fixes indicate little movement over
the past few hours.  Global models show a mid-tropospheric ridge
becoming established over Mexico during the next couple of days.
This evolution of the steering pattern should result in a
west-northwestward track in the 48- to 72-hour time frame.  In 4-5
days, the steering currents are more uncertain.  However, Polo
appears likely to slow down and turn more northward by that time.
The official forecast is very similar to the previous NHC track.
 
Polo should remain in a very conducive environment of low vertical 
wind shear, extremely warm ocean waters, and a very moist low- to 
mid-level air mass for the next several days.  Therefore even more 
strengthening is possible.  Given the suggestion of concentric 
eyewall formation however, only a slight increase in intensity is 
forecast tonight and fluctuations in intensity are likely over the 
next few days.  However, the hurricane is expected to remain very 
intense through this week and, in fact, maintain category 5 strength 
for a couple of days.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico through Thursday.  This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of
southwestern Mexico, and the Tropical Storm Watch is in effect 
westward to Playa Perula. Interests in these areas should closely
monitor updates to the forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/2100Z 14.6N 101.5W  155 KT 180 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 15.0N 101.8W  160 KT 185 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 15.5N 102.4W  160 KT 185 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 16.2N 103.6W  155 KT 180 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 16.7N 105.2W  150 KT 175 MPH
 60H  25/0600Z 17.0N 106.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 17.4N 108.5W  130 KT 150 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 18.7N 111.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 21.8N 113.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch