Polo, advisory 8

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 221454
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
900 AM CST Tue Sep 22 2026
 
...POLO IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 101.6W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo, and
extended the Tropical Storm Watch westward to Playa Perula.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
* Tecpan de Galeana to  Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the southwestern Mexico coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system as additional
watches and warnings could be necessary today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 101.6 West.  Polo is drifting
toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h).  A turn toward the northwest 
and west-northwest is expected tonight and Wednesday.  On the 
forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of 
southwestern Mexico during the next few days, although forecast to 
remain offshore.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 165 mph (270 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some additional strengthening 
is likely through tonight, with fluctuations in strength possible  
Wednesday and Wednesday night.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
currently enroute to investigate Polo.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 920 mb (27.17 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning 
area along the coast of Mexico by early Wednesday.  Tropical storm 
conditions are possible within the watch area along the coast of 
Mexico by Thursday.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across coastal 
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacn through 
Thursday.  This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and 
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4 
inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and 
Jalisco through Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, 
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic 
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 221455
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
900 AM CST Tue Sep 22 2026

Polo has a spectacular presentation on geostationary and microwave 
satellite imagery, with a small well-defined eye surrounded by a 
symmetrical area of very deep convection.  The upper-level outflow 
is quite prominent over all quadrants of the system and there are 
strong convective banding features surrounding the central dense 
overcast.  A Subjective Dvorak data T-number from TAFB just after 
1200 UTC was 7.0, corresponding to 140 kt, and assuming a little 
more strengthening since that time, the advisory intensity is set 
to 145 kt. Despite its great strength, Polo remains a relatively
small cyclone with its hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds
estimated to only extend about 30 and 80 n mi from the eye,
respectively.
 
The powerful hurricane appears to have stopped moving eastward, and 
it is now drifting northward at around 360/2 kt.  A deep-layer 
ridge is becoming established over Mexico.  This evolution of the 
steering pattern should result in Polo turning west-northwestward 
and beginning to move parallel, but fairly close to, the coast of 
Mexico over the next couple of days.  There is still uncertainty as 
to how close the hurricane will get to the coast, and some wind, 
rain, and surf impacts appear likely when Polo makes its closest 
approach.  A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for a portion 
of the coast of Mexico and the Tropical Storm Watch has been 
extended westward.  Polo should begin to pull away from southwestern 
Mexico Thursday night and Friday as the ridge keeps the system on a 
west-northwestward to northwestward path.  The steering currents 
become more uncertain over the weekend when Polo reaches the western 
edge of the ridge and nears Tropical Storm Odalys to its west. 
However Polo is likely to slow down and move more northward around 
day 5.  Little change was made to the NHC track forecast, which lies 
on the northern side of the guidance envelope.
 
Polo should remain in an environment that is very  conducive for 
strengthening during next couple of days.  It should be noted that 
for these intense hurricanes, inner-core changes such as eyewall 
replacements are quite common.  These changes can lead to some 
fluctuations in intensity.  However, Polo is likely to remain a 
dangerous major hurricane through the forecast period.


Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions 
of southwest Mexico through Thursday.  This rainfall may produce 
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of 
steep terrain.
 
2. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for portions of 
southwestern Mexico, and the Tropical Storm Watch has been extended 
westward along the coast.  Interests in these areas should closely 
monitor updates to the forecast.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/1500Z 14.7N 101.6W  145 KT 165 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 15.0N 101.5W  155 KT 180 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 15.4N 101.9W  150 KT 175 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 16.1N 102.8W  150 KT 175 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 16.7N 104.2W  140 KT 160 MPH
 60H  25/0000Z 17.1N 105.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 17.3N 107.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 18.4N 110.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 20.8N 112.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch