Polo, advisory 7

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 220836
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
300 AM CST Tue Sep 22 2026
 
...POLO CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND IS APPROACHING 
CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 101.8W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo, Mexico.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the southwestern Mexico coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system as additional
watches and warnings could be necessary today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 101.8 West. Polo is moving
toward the east-southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue today, with a sharp turn toward the
northwest and west-northwest anticipated tonight and Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the
coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days, although
forecast to remain offshore.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Continued rapid intensification 
is forecast, and Polo could become a Category 5 hurricane later 
today.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the 
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles 
(150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb (27.61 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by early Wednesday.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacn through
Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 3 to 6
inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and
Jalisco through Thursday.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of 
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These 
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220837
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
300 AM CST Tue Sep 22 2026
 
Polo continues to intensify at a very rapid rate, and it is closing 
in on category 5 strength. Satellite images indicate that Polo has a 
compact, well-defined eye surrounded by an intense eyewall. The 
estimated initial intensity is 130 kt, which is based on a blend of 
the latest subjective and objective satellite estimates. The NOAA 
Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Polo later today, and 
the data they collect will provide a better estimate of the 
cyclone's intensity. The intensification rate over the past 24 hours 
is truly remarkable, with Polo strengthening by about 90 kt over 
that time period. Despite its strength, Polo remains a relatively 
compact cyclone with its hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds 
estimated to only extend about 30 and 80 n mi from the eye, 
respectively.
 
The major hurricane continues to drift to the east-southeast, and it 
could become nearly stationary later today in weak steering 
currents. A sharp turn to the northwest is expected tonight as 
deep-layer ridging becomes established over Mexico and the 
south-central U.S. This pattern should bring the intense core of 
Polo near, but likely just offshore, of the coast of southwestern 
Mexico during the next couple of days. There is still a considerable 
amount of uncertainty in how close the hurricane will get to the 
coast, and some wind, rain, and surf impacts appear likely when Polo 
makes its closest approach. Polo should begin to pull away from 
southwestern Mexico Thursday night and Friday as the ridge keeps the 
system on a west-northwestward to northwestward path. The steering 
currents become more complicated over the weekend when Polo reaches 
the western edge of the ridge and nears Tropical Storm Odalys to its 
west. This pattern change should cause Polo to slow down and gain a 
little more latitude. The NHC track forecast has been nudged 
southward, but still lies on the northern side of the guidance 
envelope.
 
Polo remains in ideal environmental conditions and continued rapid 
intensification appears likely, and the cyclone is forecast to reach 
category 5 strength later today. It should be noted that in mature 
and powerful hurricanes like Polo, internal dynamics often cause 
intensity fluctuations and that could occur with this cyclone over 
the next couple of days. Beyond that time, a slight increase in 
easterly vertical wind shear should cause slow weakening, but Polo 
is expected to remain a major hurricane throughout the forecast 
period. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model 
guidance in the short term, but falls to near the middle of the 
guidance envelope from 48 to 120 hours.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
2. Although the core of the hurricane is forecast to remain offshore 
of southwestern Mexico, it is too soon to determine the exact 
location and magnitude of impacts. A Tropical Storm Watch is in 
effect for portions of southwestern Mexico, and interests in these 
areas should closely monitor updates to the forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 14.6N 101.8W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 14.6N 101.6W  150 KT 175 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 15.0N 101.8W  145 KT 165 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 15.7N 102.5W  140 KT 160 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 16.4N 103.7W  135 KT 155 MPH
 60H  24/1800Z 17.0N 105.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 17.4N 106.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 18.2N 109.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 20.1N 112.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi