Polo, advisory 37

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 292122 CCA
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Polo Advisory Number  37...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
200 PM MST Tue Sep 29 2026

Corrected the Next Advisory section
 
...POLO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 109.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM NNE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has discontinued all coastal warnings and
watches.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in northwestern Mexico, southern New Mexico, and far
western Texas should continue to monitor the progress of Polo.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was 
located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 109.7 West. Polo is 
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is 
expected to continue with an additional increase in forward speed 
through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Polo will 
cross northwestern Mexico this afternoon and evening before 
dissipating. The remnants of Polo should continue quickly 
northeastward, passing over southern New Mexico and far western 
Texas late tonight or early Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Rapid weakening is expected as the center of Polo moves 
farther inland, and the surface circulation is expected to dissipate 
tonight. However, the remnants of Polo are likely bring gusty winds 
to portions of southern New Mexico and far western Texas late 
tonight and early Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading across northwestern
Mexico near the center of Polo and will continue spread
northeastward tonight.
 
A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New Mexico and
far western Texas where strong gusty winds are possible late today
and tonight in association with Polos remnants. Refer to products
issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for
additional information.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6
inches across southern and central portions of Sonora with isolated
maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue to affect portions of
the coast of the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 292037
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
200 PM MST Tue Sep 29 2026
 
Since the last advisory, Polo has moved northeastward across the 
Gulf of California and made landfall in the Mexican state of Sonora 
just east of Guaymas.  The cyclone is now weakening as it moves 
farther inland and it is estimated that it is now a 55-kt 
tropical storm. Rapid weakening is expected as Polo crosses 
northwestern Mexico, and it is likely that the surface circulation 
will dissipate tonight. A 12-h position is included in this 
advisory, but it is likely to be the position of a trough or 
vorticity maximum and not a circulation center.

The initial motion is now 040/18. Polo and its remnants are expected 
to move rapidly northeastward through Wednesday in the flow on the 
east side of a mid-latitude trough over the southwestern United 
States. This track will bring the system across northwestern Mexico 
and into portions of New Mexico and Texas as it interacts with the 
trough. This evolution will contribute to heavy rainfall, flash 
flooding, and gusty winds in the southwestern U.S. and southern 
Plains. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and 
local National Weather Service offices for more information.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across 
northwestern Mexico near the center of Polo through tonight.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will continue to impact the 
southern and central portions of Sonora today. This rainfall is 
expected to produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas of steep terrain. Moisture from Polo will 
support heavy rainfall and flooding potential across the Southwest 
U.S. into the Southern High Plains today into early Wednesday.
 
3. Even after the surface circulation of Polo dissipates, its low- 
to mid-level remnants may produce strong gusty winds well inland 
over the higher terrain of northwest Mexico, southern New Mexico, 
and far western Texas.
 
4. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely to persist along 
portions of the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for 
the next day or so.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 29.0N 109.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 12H  30/0600Z 32.6N 105.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven