Polo, advisory 35
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 35
Public advisory
National Hurricane Center · public advisory 35 · issued Sep 29, 8:57 AM UTCsource ↗
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 290857 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 200 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026 ...POLO LASHING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN SONORA EARLY THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 111.9W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WNW OF LORETO MEXICO ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The hurricane warning along the west coast of Baja California Sur south of Puerto Cortes has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Puerto Cortes * East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia * East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San Evaristo * Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia. * East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San Evaristo. * Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should have already been completed. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within next 12 hours. Interests in the remainder of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 111.9 West. Polo is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue along with a significant acceleration this morning. On the forecast track, the core of Polo will continue moving across Baja California Sur for another few hours tonight, then move inland over southern Sonora late this morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of hours while the center is over Baja California Sur, but Polo is still expected to be a hurricane when it makes its second landfall in mainland Mexico. Rapid weakening is forecast on Tuesday when Polo moves well inland over mainland Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue across Baja California Sur in the warning area during the next several hours, and these conditions are possible in the watch area for another few hours. In mainland Mexico, hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area this morning. A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New Mexico and far western Texas where strong gusty winds are possible late Tuesday and Tuesday night in association with Polos remnants. Refer to products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional information. RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches is expected across southern and central portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Forecast discussion
National Hurricane Center · forecast discussion 35 (corrected) · issued Sep 29, 9:11 AM UTCsource ↗
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 290911 CCA TCDEP2 Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 35...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 200 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026 Corrected for Key Message number 1. Polo made landfall around 06Z along the west coast of Baja California Sur, just south of the small town of Las Barrancas. Several microwave fixes received after the 03Z advisory went out (WSF-M, SAR, and two ASCAT passes) all indicated that center of Polo was a bit farther south than was estimated at 03Z. There is some uncertainty in what the intensity was at landfall, but given all the data we have received, it is likely that Polo was a category 2 hurricane at the time of landfall with maximum winds in the 90-95 kt range. The center has been over land for about 3 hours now, and it is estimated that the maximum winds have come down to about 70 kt. The hurricane is moving northeastward, or 30 degrees at 9 kt. A significant increase in forward speed is expected this morning as a mid- to upper-level trough amplifies over the southwestern U.S. This track should take the system inland over the Mexican state of Sonora late this morning. The track forecast is a little slower compared to the previous forecast for the first 12 hours, mainly due to the slower initial motion. Some slight additional weakening is likely for another couple of hours while the center of Polo remains over land. When the center emerges over the Gulf of California, atmospheric and oceanic conditions could allow for Polo to maintain its intensity. The latest HAFS models show landfall in Sonora around 60 kt, but it is possible that Polo could still be a hurricane when it reaches that state. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected over the rugged terrain of northwestern Mexico. Although Polo is likely to dissipate between the hour 12 and 24 points, a 24 hour point is included for continuity. Polo's remnant vorticity will likely interact and phase with a strong cutoff low digging into the Four Corners region of the U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday, contributing to heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and gusty winds in the southwestern U.S. and southern Plains. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and local National Weather Service offices for more information. Key Messages: 1. Polo is still bringing hurricane-force winds to Baja California Sur, and residents there should remain in a safe shelter through this morning. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will spread into mainland Mexico early today. A dangerous storm surge is expected in areas of onshore winds. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact Baja California Sur along with southern and central portions of Sonora today. This rainfall is expected to produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Moisture from Polo will support heavy rainfall and flooding potential across the Southwest U.S. into the Southern High Plains today into early Wednesday. 3. Even after Polo dissipates, its mid-level remnants may produce strong gusty winds well inland over the higher terrain of northwest Mexico, southern New Mexico, and far western Texas. 4. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 26.2N 111.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 28.4N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/0600Z 31.7N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
