Polo, advisory 34

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 290233
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
800 PM MST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
...POLO ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING ONGOING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 112.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe
* East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Bahia San Juan
Bautista
* Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia.
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo.
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case this evening into 
Tuesday. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed in Baja California Sur or rushed to completion shortly in 
Sonora.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
next 12 hours.
 
Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder
of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 112.5 West. Polo is moving
toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion with
a gradual acceleration is anticipated through Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to make landfall
along the coast of Baja California Sur within the next couple of
hours, then move inland over southern Sonora Tuesday morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before
Polo makes landfall on Baja California Sur. Polo is also expected to
be a hurricane when it makes its second landfall in mainland
Mexico. Rapid weakening is forecast on Tuesday when Polo moves well
inland over mainland Mexico.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue across Baja California Sur
in the warning area during the next several hours, and these
conditions are possible in the watch area tonight. In mainland
Mexico, hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area and
possible in the watch area early Tuesday morning.
 
A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New Mexico and
far western Texas where strong gusty winds are possible late Tuesday
and Tuesday night in association with Polos remnants. Refer to
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office for additional information.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4
to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 expected across southern and
central portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of
the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico during the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products
from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 290234
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
800 PM MST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
Polo is about to make landfall on Baja California Sur. Heavy rains
and hurricane-force winds have already spread across the peninsula,
and the worst conditions will likely occur in the hurricane warning
area within the next few hours. Polo is not as well organized as it
was earlier, with the eye filling in satellite images. The initial
intensity is held at 100 kt near the high end of the latest
satellite estimates, but this could be a little generous.
 
The hurricane is moving northeastward at 11 kt, and that motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected as a mid- to
upper-level trough amplifies over the southwestern U.S. This
track should take the system across Baja California and the Gulf
of California tonight and then inland over the Mexican state of
Sonora Tuesday morning. Little change was made to the previous
track forecast, and this one remains near the middle of the
guidance envelope.
 
Little change in strength is expected before Polo makes landfall on
Baja California Sur. However, the combination of land interaction
and increasing vertical wind shear should cause Polo to rapidly
weaken overnight, but it is still expected to be a hurricane when it
makes its second landfall in Sonora Tuesday morning. Polo should
quickly dissipate over the rugged terrain of Mexico later on
Tuesday, and even though a 24-hour position is provided, it seems
unlikely that the hurricane will still be around by then.
 
Polo's remnant vorticity will likely interact and phase with a
strong cutoff low digging into the Four Corners region of the U.S.
on Tuesday and Wednesday, contributing to heavy rainfall, flash
flooding, and gusty winds in the southwestern U.S. and southern
Plains. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and
local National Weather Service offices for more information.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Polo is forecast about to make landfall as a major hurricane on
the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula. Residents should
remain in a safe shelter. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions
will spread into mainland Mexico late tonight and early Tuesday. A
dangerous storm surge is expected in areas of onshore winds.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact Baja California
Sur along with southern and central portions of Sonora tonight and
Tuesday. This rainfall is expected to produce life-threatening
flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
Moisture from Polo will support heavy rainfall and flooding
potential across the Southwest U.S. into the Southern High Plains
tonight into Tuesday.
 
3. Even after Polo dissipates, its mid-level remnants may produce
strong gusty winds well inland over the higher terrain of northwest
Mexico, southern New Mexico, and far western Texas.
 
4. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of the
northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next day or
so.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 25.9N 112.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 27.7N 110.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 31.0N 107.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi