Polo, advisory 33
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 33
Public advisory
National Hurricane Center · public advisory 33 · issued Sep 28, 8:48 PM UTCsource ↗
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 282048 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 200 PM MST Mon Sep 28 2026 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT POLO IS STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE NEARING THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING NOW BEGINNING OVER PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 113.0W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe * East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia * East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San Evaristo * Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia. * East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San Evaristo. * Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case late this afternoon into Tuesday. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed or rushed to completion shortly. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case over the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next 12 hours. Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Polo was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 113.0 West. Polo is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion with gradual acceleration is expected this evening through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Polo is expected to move inland along the coast of Baja California Sur later this evening, then move inland into southern Sonora on Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible this afternoon, but Polo is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it makes landfall on the west coast of Baja California Sur this evening. Polo is also expected to be a hurricane when it makes landfall in mainland Mexico early Tuesday morning. Rapid weakening is expected after Polo moves well inland into mainland Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The minimum central pressure estimated by earlier aircraft dropsonde data is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area along the west coast of Baja California Sur shortly, with tropical storm conditions ongoing in the southern portion of the warning area. These conditions are expected to spread northward and eastward across Baja California Sur during the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area and possible in the watch area in mainland northwestern Mexico early Tuesday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin tonight. A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New Mexico and far western Texas where strong gusty winds are possible late Tuesday and Tuesday night in association with Polos remnants. Refer to products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional information. RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches are expected across southern and central portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Forecast discussion
National Hurricane Center · forecast discussion 33 · issued Sep 28, 8:52 PM UTCsource ↗
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 282052 TCDEP2 Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 200 PM MST Mon Sep 28 2026 NOAA Hurricane Hunters investigated Polo this afternoon, finding the hurricane was still well organized with a 23 n mi wide eye, though the eyewall was open to the southwest and there was a subtle increase in the vertical tilt comparing the 1-5 km Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) wind data from the aircraft. The highest 700 mb flight-level winds were 106 kt in the southeast quadrant, which using a typical 0.9 reduction factor would suggest an intensity of 95 kt. However, the TDR data has also been useful to diagnose the intensity of Polo since it samples a larger wind field swath, and the final southwest to northeast leg through the hurricane indicated 0.5 km winds up to 112 kt in the northeast eyewall. Experimental reduction data from this TDR analysis in this region reduced these boundary layer winds down to 100 kt at 10 meters. Thus, the initial intensity remains 100 kt for this advisory. Polo continues to move northeastward, but it is starting to accelerate some with an current motion of 40 degrees at 10 kt. This general motion should continue over the next day with gradual acceleration as the hurricane is captured by a strong shortwave trough swinging into the southwestern United States. This track will take Polo's core over the Baja California Peninsula this evening very close to Puerto San Andresito. The hurricane will then briefly move over the Gulf of California overnight, finally making a second landfall in northwestern mainland Mexico on Tuesday morning. The NHC track forecast is essentially an update from this morning, and is in the middle of the tightly clustered guidance. Sea-surface temperatures actually increase a bit as Polo approaches Baja California Sur. Vertical wind shear, while also increasing, is unlikely to get strong enough over the next 3-6 h to cause much weakening. Thus, Polo is likely to maintain its current intensity and be at or near major hurricane intensity when it makes landfall on the west coast of Baja California Sur this evening. Weakening will likely begin immediately after it moves over the rugged terrain of the peninsula, though Polo is still expected to be a hurricane when it makes its second landfall in mainland Mexico on the Gulf of California coast. Rapid weakening is expected when Polo moves fully inland over the high rugged terrain of northwestern Mexico, and the tropical cyclone is expected to degenerate into a trough before its remnants reach the southwestern United States. However Polo's remnant vorticity will ultimately interact and phase with a strong cutoff low digging into the the four corners region of the U.S. on Tuesday into Wednesday, contributing to heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and gusty winds the southwestern U.S. and southern Plains. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and local National Weather Service offices for more information. Key Messages: 1. Polo is forecast to make landfall on the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula near major hurricane strength this evening. Conditions will deteriorate quickly, and residents are urged to seek safe shelter. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will spread inland across Baja California tonight, and into mainland Mexico late tonight and early Tuesday. A dangerous storm surge is expected in areas of onshore winds. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact Baja California Sur along with southern and central portions of Sonora today into Tuesday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Moisture from Polo will support heavy rainfall and flooding potential across the Southwest U.S. into the Southern High Plains late today into Tuesday. 3. Even after Polo dissipates, its mid-level remnants may produce strong gusty winds well inland over the higher terrain of northwest Mexico and southern New Mexico and far western Texas. 4. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 25.0N 113.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 26.2N 112.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND OVER BAJA CA 24H 29/1800Z 28.7N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND OVER MEXICO 36H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
