Polo, advisory 32

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 281444
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
800 AM MST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
...POLO STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...CONDITIONS TO SOON DETERIORATE AS LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND
FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND
SONORA TODAY AND TUESDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 113.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe
* East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Bahia San Juan
Bautista
* Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia.
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo.
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case later this afternoon
into Tuesday. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed or rushed to completion shortly.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case over the next 12 to 24 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the
next 12 to 24 hours.
 
Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder
of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located 
near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 113.5 West. Polo is now moving 
toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion with 
gradual acceleration is expected this afternoon through Tuesday. On 
the forecast track, the center of Polo is expected to move inland 
along the coast of Baja California Sur this evening, then move 
inland into southern Sonora on Tuesday morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible today. 
However, Polo is forecast to be near major hurricane strength when 
it reaches Baja California Sur this evening, and is anticipated to 
be a hurricane when it makes landfall in mainland Mexico late early 
Tuesday morning. Rapid weakening is expected after Polo moves well 
inland into mainland Mexico. 
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
along the west coast of Baja California Sur by late this afternoon,
with tropical storm conditions beginning in the southern portion of
the warning area later this morning. These conditions are expected
to spread northward and eastward across Baja California Sur later
today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the
Hurricane Warning area and possible in the watch area in mainland
northwestern Mexico late tonight through early Tuesday with tropical
storm conditions expected to begin tonight.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4
to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches are expected across
southern and central portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
west-central Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the
next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 281446
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
800 AM MST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
On geostationary satellite, Polo still looks pretty healthy, 
with a small central dense overcast with an embedded eye, though 
the eye feature has been coming and going. Some of this evolution 
is likely due to inner-core structural changes near the center, 
where an earlier AMSR-3 microwave pass at 0928 UTC showed evidence 
of concentric rings suggesting an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) 
on the 37 GHz channel. The 12 UTC subjective Dvorak TAFB CI number 
remains 5.5/102 kt, though the objective intensity estimates have 
fallen some. For now, the initial intensity is being maintained at 
100 kt, pending another NOAA P-3 aircraft that should provide an 
update in the storms structure and intensity this afternoon. 

Polo appears to be making the turn to the northeast, with the 
estimated motion now at 35 degrees at 9 kt. This general heading in 
Polo's track should continue for the next 36 h, though with some 
gradual acceleration as the hurricane is captured by a short-wave 
trough swinging into the southwestern United States. This track 
will take Polo's core over the Baja California Peninsula this 
evening, then briefly moving over the Gulf of California overnight 
wit ha second landfall in northwestern mainland Mexico on Tuesday 
Morning. The latest NHC track forecast is very close to the 
previous one, following the reliable HFIP corrected consensus 
approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI).

The vertical wind shear remains low over Polo at the moment, and has 
now shifted out of the southwest, so the vector is in the same 
direction as its component of motion. In addition sea-surface 
temperatures actually warm as the hurricane approaches the 
coastline. Thus, Polo's intensity will be primarily governed by 
inner-core structural changes today before landfall. While the 
interpolated guidance shows a bit of modest weakening in 12 h, given 
the favorable environment, it is probably more prudent to maintain 
the hurricane's current intensity before it makes landfall in the 
Baja California Peninsula where it will likely be near or at major 
hurricane intensity. Land interaction with the peninsula and shear 
increasing should lead to significant weakening, but Polo is still 
expected to be a hurricane when it reaches mainland Mexico. Even 
more rapid weakening is expected when Polo moves inland over the 
high rugged terrain of northwestern mainland Mexico and the storm 
will likely dissipate over the higher terrain long before it reaches 
the southwestern U.S. 
 
Although Polo is expected to dissipate before it reaches the 
southern U.S., distant moisture associated with it and the Post- 
Tropical Cyclone Odalys will be transported into the southwestern 
United States during the next few days, and may indirectly 
contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. 
See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more 
information.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Polo is forecast to make landfall on the west coast of the Baja 
California Peninsula near major hurricane strength this evening. 
Conditions will deteriorate shortly, making preparations difficult. 
Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to spread 
across Baja California through tonight, and into mainland Mexico 
late on early Tuesday. A dangerous storm surge is likely in areas of 
onshore winds. 
 
2. Heavy rainfall from Polo will impact Baja California Sur and 
southern and central portions of Sonora today into Tuesday. This 
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas of steep terrain. Moisture from Polo will 
support heavy rainfall and flooding potential across the southwest 
U.S. into the southern High Plains late today into Tuesday.
 
3. Even after Polo dissipates, its mid-level remnants may produce 
gusty winds well inland over the higher terrain of northwest
Mexico and the southwest United States. 
 
4. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of
the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next
couple of days.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 24.2N 113.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 25.4N 112.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 27.4N 111.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  30/0000Z 29.9N 108.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin