Polo, advisory 31

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 280852
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
200 AM MST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SONORA TODAY AND TUESDAY...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DETERIORATING THIS MORNING IN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 113.8W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SSW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has upgraded the Hurricane Watch along the 
east coast of Baja California Sur north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia 
San Juan Bautista to a Hurricane Warning.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe
* East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Bahia San Juan 
Bautista
* Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia.
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo.
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 30
hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.
 
Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder
of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 113.8 West. Polo is now moving
toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the 
northeast is expected this afternoon, followed by a slight increase 
in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Polo is 
expected to move inland along the coast of Baja California Sur late 
this afternoon or early this evening, then move inland in southern 
Sonora late Monday night or early Tuesday morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Polo is forecast to be near major hurricane 
strength when it reaches Baja California Sur late today, and it is 
expected to be a hurricane when it makes landfall in mainland Mexico 
late tonight or early Tuesday morning.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
along the west coast of Baja California Sur by late this afternoon,
with tropical storm conditions beginning in the southern portion of
the warning area later this morning. These conditions are expected
to spread northward and eastward across Baja California Sur later
today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the
Hurricane Warning area and possible in the watch area in mainland
northwestern Mexico late tonight through early Tuesday with tropical
storm conditions expected to begin tonight.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4
to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches are expected across 
southern and central portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
west-central Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the
next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 280854
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
200 AM MST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
Polo has remained fairly steady over the past 6 hours in terms of 
its overall convective structure.  The ragged eye and inner core 
have perhaps only become slightly less impressive.  The TAFB current 
intensity number is 5.5/102 kt and recent UW-CIMSS objective 
estimates are in the 90-100 kt range.  The initial intensity is 
nudged downward to 100 kt.
 
The major hurricane is now moving north-northeastward at 9 kt on the
western side of a mid-level ridge that is situated over northern
Mexico.  Polo is forecast to turn northeastward by this afternoon 
as a trough amplifies over California, taking the core of the 
hurricane over the Baja California Peninsula late this afternoon or 
evening.  Polo is then expected to briefly pass over the Gulf of 
California before making a second landfall in northwestern mainland 
Mexico late tonight or early Tuesday morning.  The latest NHC 
forecast is on top of the previous forecast, but slightly slower, 
and lies close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) 
guidance.

The SHIPS and UW-CIMSS analyses are currently diagnosing less than 
10 kt of vertical wind shear over Polo.  The shear is expected to 
increase to about 15 to 18 kt by the time Polo makes landfall in 
Baja California Sur, but thermodynamic conditions aren't expected to 
change much.  Most of the guidance indicates slight weakening over 
the next 12 to 18 hours.  The most likely scenario for the intensity 
at landfall in Baja California is around 95 kt, but there is also a 
chance that Polo could maintain its current intensity until it makes 
landfall.  Land interaction with the peninsula and an increase in 
wind shear should cause some weakening, but Polo is still expected 
to be a hurricane when it reaches mainland Mexico. After the second 
landfall, rapid weakening is forecast over the rugged terrain of 
Mexico.  The official intensity forecast is only slightly lower 
than the previous one up until the first landfall, and then is 
similar to the previous forecast.  The NHC intensity forecast is in 
good agreement with the majority of the guidance.
 
Although Polo is expected to dissipate before it reaches the 
southern U.S., distant moisture associated with it and the 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys will be transported into the 
southwestern United States during the next few days, and may 
indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in 
the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for 
more information.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Polo is forecast to make landfall on the west coast of the Baja
California Peninsula near major hurricane strength late today, 
within the Hurricane Warning area. Conditions are expected to begin 
to deteriorate there this morning, making further preparations
difficult. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to
spread across Baja California through today through tonight, and 
into mainland Mexico late tonight into early Tuesday. A storm 
surge is likely, especially in areas of onshore winds.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact Baja California 
Sur along with southern and central portions of Sonora today into 
Tuesday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and 
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Moisture from Polo 
will support heavy rainfall and flooding potential across the 
Southwest U.S. into the Southern High Plains late today into 
Tuesday.
 
3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of
the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next
couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0900Z 23.6N 113.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 24.8N 113.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 26.7N 111.6W   75 KT  85 MPH...EAST COAST OF BAJA
 36H  29/1800Z 29.5N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen