Polo, advisory 30

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 280234
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
800 PM MST Sun Sep 27 2026
 
...POLO HEADED TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE MONDAY MORNING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 114.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe
* East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Santa Rosalia
* Mainland Mexico from Guaymas to Huatabampito
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo
* East coast of Baja California Sur, north of Santa Rosalia to
Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas to Bahia Kino
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia.
* East coast of Baja California Sur, north of Santa Rosalia to
Bahia San Juan Bautista
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo.
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas to Bahia Kino
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected 
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of 
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside 
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life 
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
 
Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder
of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Polo was located 
near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 114.0 West. Polo is moving 
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion should continue 
for the next several hours followed by a turn toward the northeast 
on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the 
west coast of Baja California Sur on Monday, move across the 
peninsula Monday night and then approach northwestern mainland 
Mexico by early Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Polo is forecast to be at or near major
hurricane strength when it reaches Baja California Sur on Monday,
and it is expected to be a hurricane when it makes landfall in
mainland Mexico early Tuesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
along the west coast of Baja California Sur by late Monday
afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning in the southern
portion of the warning area Monday morning. These conditions are
expected to spread northward and eastward across Baja California Sur
on Monday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area and possible in the watch area in mainland
northwestern Mexico late Monday night through early Tuesday with 
tropical storm conditions expected to begin Monday night.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum totals
of 8 expected across portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 280235
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
800 PM MST Sun Sep 27 2026
 
Polo is approaching the Baja California Peninsula as a powerful 
major hurricane. Satellite images suggest that the cyclone is 
maintaining its intensity with a ragged eye feature persisting, 
surrounded by intense deep convection. The cloud pattern is a little 
asymmetric, with the coldest cloud tops currently located over the 
western half of the circulation. The latest satellite intensity 
estimates are largely unchanged, and generally range from 100 to 115 
kt. Based on that data and steady state appearance, the initial wind 
speed is held at 110 kt.

The major hurricane is moving northward at about 10 kt on the 
western side of a mid-level ridge that is situated over northern 
Mexico. Polo is forecast to turn northeastward on Monday as a trough 
amplifies over California, taking the core of the hurricane over the 
Baja California Peninsula Monday afternoon or evening. Polo is then 
expected to briefly pass over the Gulf of California before making a 
second landfall in northwestern mainland Mexico Monday night or 
early Tuesday morning. Little change was made to the previous 
forecast, and this one lies near the best-performing models of the 
year so far, HCCA and GDMI.

No significant change in strength is expected before Polo reaches 
Baja California, and based on the model guidance, it seems likely 
to be at or near major hurricane intensity when it makes 
landfall there. Land interaction with the peninsula and an increase 
in wind shear should cause some weakening, but Polo is still 
expected to be a hurricane when it reaches mainland Mexico. After 
the second landfall, rapid weakening is forecast over the rugged 
terrain of Mexico. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the 
previous one, and in good agreement with the majority of the 
guidance.
 
Although Polo is expected to dissipate before it reaches the 
southern U.S., distant moisture associated with it and the 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys will be transported into the 
southwestern United States during the next few days, and may 
indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in 
the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for 
more information.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Polo is forecast to make landfall on the west coast of the Baja
California Peninsula as a hurricane late Monday, within the 
Hurricane Warning area. Conditions are expected to begin to 
deteriorate there Monday morning, making further preparations 
difficult. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to 
spread across Baja California through Monday and into mainland 
Mexico on early Tuesday. A storm surge is likely, especially in 
areas of onshore winds.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact Baja California 
Sur along with southern and central portions of Sonora Monday into 
Tuesday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and 
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Moisture from Polo 
will support heavy rainfall and flooding potential across the 
Southwest U.S. into the Southern High Plains late Monday into 
Tuesday.
 
3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of
the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next
couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 22.8N 114.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 24.1N 113.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 25.9N 112.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 28.3N 110.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 48H  30/0000Z 31.3N 107.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi