Polo, advisory 29

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 272045
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
200 PM MST Sun Sep 27 2026
 
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT POLO REMAINS A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR MAINLAND MEXICO
ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 114.1W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning along the
coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas.
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning along 
the coast of mainland Mexico north of Guaymas to Bahia Kino and 
south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo.
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch along the 
coast of mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe
* East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Santa Rosalia
* Mainland Mexico from Guaymas to Huatabampito
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo
* East coast of Baja California Sur, north of Santa Rosalia to
Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas to Bahia Kino
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia.
* East coast of Baja California Sur, north of Santa Rosalia to
Bahia San Juan Bautista
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo.
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas to Bahia Kino
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
 
Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder
of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Polo was located 
near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 114.1 West. Polo is moving 
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion should continue 
through tonight followed by a turn toward the northeast on Monday. 
On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the west coast 
of Baja California Sur on Monday, move across the peninsula Monday 
night and then approach northwestern mainland Mexico by early 
Tuesday.
 
Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter indicate that the maximum 
sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Polo 
is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind 
Scale. Fluctuations in strength are possible over the next day or 
two, but Polo is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength 
when it reaches Baja California Sur on Monday, and it is expected to 
be a hurricane when it makes landfall in mainland Mexico early 
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area 
along the west coast of Baja California Sur by late Monday 
afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning in the southern 
portion of the warning area by early Monday. These conditions are 
expected to spread northward and eastward across Baja California Sur 
on Monday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane 
Warning area in mainland northwestern Mexico early Tuesday and 
are possible in the Watch area with tropical storm conditions 
expected to begin Monday night.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum totals
of 8 expected across portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur
during the next couple of days. These swells will spread northward
along the coast of the Baja California Peninsula. These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal 
flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 272050
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
200 PM MST Sun Sep 27 2026
 
A NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft was able to complete two fixes 
into Polo earlier this afternoon, indicating the hurricane was more 
or less steady state. In the final fix, the aircraft reported a   
22 n mi closed eyewall, though in the wind data there was some 
evidence of a double wind maximum at 700 mb even though the 
secondary wind max was not seen in the Tail Doppler Radar wind 
data. The peak flight-level winds were 117 kt, which typically 
reduces to 105 kt using a standard 0.9 reduction. However, the 
aircraft did not fully sample the eastern quadrant where higher 
winds may exist. In addition, subjective and objective satellite 
intensity estimates remain at or above 110 kt, so Polo's initial 
intensity will be held at 110 kt this advisory.

Polo is continuing its turn, now moving northward at 355 degrees at 
10 kt. The synoptic setup and track reasoning has not chanced much 
this cycle, with Polo expected to move between deep-layer ridging 
centered over Mexico and a shortwave trough that will soon move into 
California. This trough is forecast to sweep southward, helping to 
capture the smaller Polo, leading it to accelerating to the 
northeast. The NHC track forecast this cycle is largely an update of 
the previous one this morning, though there remains more along-track 
spread, related to Polo's speed of motion, than across-track spread. 
This latest track lies closest to the Google DeepMind ensemble mean 
(GDMI). With the latest update to the track, a Hurricane Warning 
has now been issued for portions of mainland Mexico along the Gulf 
of California. 

Vertical wind shear in the SHIPS guidance is in the 5-10 kt range 
for the next 12-24 h while the hurricane traverses 28-29 C 
sea-surface temperatures, so Polo's short-term intensity will likely 
be controlled by inner-core fluctuations. Given the double wind 
maxima that appeared in the earlier aircraft data, it is not out of 
the question another eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) could occur 
before Polo makes landfall along the west Baja California Sur 
coastline. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows very little 
change in strength before Polo reaches the coast, and the latest 
forecast now anticipates Polo making landfall at near major 
hurricane intensity. In fact, both the 12z HAFS-A/B raw model output 
show Polo making landfall as a major hurricane even if their 
interpolated aids are a bit lower in intensity. Significant 
weakening should occur as it moves over the rugged terrain of the 
Baja California Peninsula, but Polo will likely still be a hurricane 
when it makes its second landfall in mainland Mexico. Rapid 
weakening is forecast thereafter and Polo will likely dissipate 
before the middle of this week over the Mexican Plateau. 
 
Polo is expected to dissipate before it reaches the southern U.S., 
but distant moisture associated with it and Odalys will be 
transported into the southwestern United States during the next few 
days, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash 
flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather 
Prediction Center for more information.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Polo is forecast to approach the west coast of the Baja 
California peninsula on Monday as a hurricane, and a Hurricane 
Warning is in effect for that region. Tropical storm conditions 
could reach portions of the coast as soon as tonight or early 
Monday, making further preparations difficult. These conditions will 
likely spread across Baja California through Monday and into 
mainland Mexico on early Tuesday. A storm surge is likely, 
especially in areas of onshore winds.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja 
California Sur later tonight into Tuesday and portions of Sonora 
late Monday into Tuesday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening 
flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.  
Moisture from Polo will support heavy rainfall and flooding 
potential across the Southwest U.S. into the Southern High Plains 
late Monday into Tuesday.
 
3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of
the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next
few days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 21.9N 114.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 23.2N 114.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 25.0N 113.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 27.0N 111.3W   75 KT  85 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  29/1800Z 29.9N 108.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 60H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin